Sept.27 PCKH

Following the recent profit taking half of my position of REG, I have positioned quietly in the next stock. I may now divulge since it had already kicked off just today..I didn't expect it though but hoping it would retrace back somewhere at 7 or even lower than that should be favorable to continue my accumulation.

Let's talk about PCKH Pancake house

excerpted from COL
The Group forecasts to grow its profit by 70 percent for the year 2012 with the continuing efforts of the Team and with the full­ year contribution of Yellow Cab and expansion efforts overseas, mainly in Southeast Asia, Southern China and the Middle East. We confirm further that the group is now focused on Qatar and Kuwait. We are on the process of expanding in Malaysia and seeking partners in Indonesia and franchise operators in the Southern part of China. We hope to have clarified the news article in the interest of trading participants and the investing public.

Financials

I do keep an excel format monitoring sheet to help me choose stocks showing improve earnings and projected dividends...from there I can compute "in my own understanding" the probable price it can reach set by my own convenient margin..

Let me show you my own computation and perhaps justify my buying of PCKH

Outstanding shares: 237,795,455

Retained Earning 1H: 258,074,711 (less 35M divs last June)

Earnings:

1Q 33,195,217

2Q 16,920,444

Annualized Earning:  100M/outstanding shares

EPS: 0.42

PE of JFC:  32 (closest comparison)

PE of RFM: 25

I am opt to use PE of 25 to be conservative on the target price

PE 25 x 0.42 = 10.5 pesos PCKH 

and PE 30 x 0.42 = 12.6 pesos (close to 12.2 its historic high)

Should 3Q releases at least 25M earning then target price is not far fetched...still I am hoping for the price to remain close to 7 as much as possible so I may resume my accumulation. I would like to see the price to realize its potential just when the earnings of stores abroad is incorporated.