May 25- Benjamin Multiple: SPC

Stock: SPC

Market price: P5.17

Date: May 24, 2013

Expensive Multiple as per Benjamin Graham is 22.5 (PE x P/BV)

16 cents            1Q EPS            

64 cents            Annualized eps 

P2.90                BV                      

8.08x                PE                   

1.78x                P/B.V               

14.38                PE X P/BV        

Upside to expensive level:

56.5% or P 8.07

*see legend below

Notes:

-650 MW Thermal Power Plant

The Operation and Maintenance Service Contract (OMSC) with PSALM for the 650 MW

Thermal Power Plant located in Pililla, Rizal (Facility) will expire on October 25, 2013.

-145.8 MW Naga Power Plant Complex (NPPC)

The Parent Company intends to actively participate in any further re-bidding and/or negotiation for the operation and maintenance of NPPC after September 25, 2013.

Action: Buying Below 5.20 (will change every earning report or when deemed fair)

Buying method: Fixed monthly amount for target buying price

Happy Investing!

Legend:

PE- Price to Earning

EPS- Earning per share

P/BV-Price to Book Value

SPC-Salcon Power Corporation

May 24- ALPHA 1Q 2013

ALPHA 1Q 2013

1,984,322,351                -Out.shares
34,725,641,142              -MarCap

36.342 billion pesos        -Equity attributable to parent company

1.838 billion pesos          -Capital stock
8.280 billion pesos          -Retained earnings

4.797 billion pesos          -Current Assets
52.567 billion pesos        -Total Asset

225.2 million pesos         -Cash and cash equivalent
13.791billion pesos         -Liabilities

Revenue: 1Qs

142.656 million pesos     -2013
119.033 million pesos     -2012
% change: 19.85 %

Net Income 1Qs: Operation

402.540 million pesos     -2013
375.070 million pesos     -2012

% change:  7.3%

Annualized income: 1.6B

closing price 17-05-2013: 17.5 pesos
ANNUALIZED EPS : 81 centavos
P/E : *21.6X (expensive for me)

*While many projects have been operational, we will expect this to contribute to earnings and put down the PE to a more conservative level.

B/V per share: 18.32 pesos
Price to book value: 0.96x
Note: Market price is below Book value


Projects:

Alphaland Southgate Tower- fully develop

Alphaland Makati Place- one of the highest residential buildings along Ayala Avenue, Makati City with 55 floors.

Alphaland Balesin lsland- as of December 31st, 2012 the Club is substantially completed and is already operating

Alphaland Tower- the 34-storey Alphaland ower will rise on a 2,400s square meter property along Ayala Avenue which is know near completion d slated for delivery within the first half of 2013

Alphaland Boracay Gateway Country Club- Situated in a sprawling 500-hectare property in the Northern tip of Nabas, Aklan Panay Island. The property faces the world-famous Boracay Island. With the proposed Caticlan Airport International Airport and the Boracay Jetty is only five minutes drive away. Alphalang can truly build a gateway development and a spectacular destination itself.

Alphaland Bay City- 32 hectares planned premiums seaside residential, commercial and business located along Manila bay beside the Mall of Asia compound.

Alphaland Marina Club- Alphaland bay City’s centerpiece is a modern Marina Club that provies world-class yachiting facilities for 300 yachts, including super and mega yachts.

Shangri-La at the Fort-  20% stake in the Shangri-la at the fort project. Six star hotel

Silang Property- acquired 300,000 square meers, more or less, in Silang cavite. Expect property values to further appreciate once the government completes the 62Billion 11.7 km light rail transit (LRT) Line 1 project, which will extend the existing LRT line from Baclaran (Paranaque) to Bacoor (Cavite)

Other notes:

Return on Equity: 4.4 %
Return on Assets: 3.04 %
Net income margin: 182% 

Current ratio: 0.82 
Debt-to-equity: 0.38

Happy Investing

May 16- ATN technical analysis

ATN Chart 6-Months scale

Technical analysis:

Stock: ATN
Date: May 16

Current price: 1.61 H-1.61, L-1.58
Support:1.45. 1.35
Remark: Third attempt to break 1.62..at work to make 1.62 a support 

Resistance: 1.70, 1.80, 2.0 trading above 200MA with converging 30, 60SMA (good sign for me)
Remark: showing bounce on 30SMA, Vol above 10EMA

Adding: 1.70 breach
Selling: near 2.0 (or see price action)

Indicators:
MACD histogram changing direction
sts still within tradeabe range, up
RSI ok

Other notes:
Current price: 1.61
Book Value= 3.05

PD: NO ATN

May 16- six star SHNG 1Q

SGCPI and FBSHI entered into an unincorporated joint venture agreement for the construction of a six-star hotel and high-end development at SGCPI's land property in Bonifacio Global City, Taguig, Metro Manila, to be known as Shangri-La at the Fort

where (FBSHI) a subsidiary of shng has a 40% interest.
RVO is a non-executive Dir.of shangri la asia.

SHNG 1Q 2013

4,764,056,287                -Out.shares
18,579,819,519.3           -MarCap

20.320 billion pesos        -Equity attributable to parent company
14.727 billion pesos        -Retained earnings

37.110  billion pesos       -Assets
8,165 billion pesos          -Total current asset
2.092 billion pesos          -Cash and cash equivalent
13.791billion pesos         -Liabilities

Revenue: 1Qs

1.328 billion pesos          -2012
857 million pesos           -2011
% change: 54.9 %

Net Income 1Qs:

358million pesos            -2013
298million pesos            -2012

% change: 20%

Annualized income: 1.43B

closing price 15-05-2013: 3.95 pesos
ANNUALIZED EPS : 30 centavos
P/E : 13.2x

B/V per share: 4.27 pesos
Price to book value: 0.92x
Note: Market price is below Book value

Comparative avg. PE with other companies at 14
TP- 14 X 0.30 = 4.20

Current price to TP: 6% upside (should I sell?)

Since 1Q posted the least earnings based on last year performance this drags down the annualized eps to 0.30.

Note: wait for 2Q earning report for better assessment and review eps again.

NOTES:

***Fort Bonifacio Shangri-la Hotel, Inc. (FBSHI) 40.00% ownership---if I am right, this is the six-star hotel which is under construction at BGC and is targeted to open in 2014. This will be the Flagship luxury hotel of Shangri la portfolio

Tip: know shng’s partner in this venture…

-Upcoming developments for Shang Properties include One Shangri-La Place, which enjoyed brisk sales of over 250 units during its one-day exclusive preview last March 10, and the construction of a 6-level Shangri-La Plaza mall expansion.

-Construction ongoing for twin towers and next year 2014 completion of the construction.. 

Target turn over date remains 2015.

Other notes:

Return on Equity: 7.0 %
Return on Assets: 3.85 %
Net income margin: 27% 

Current ratio: 2.22 
Debt-to-equity: 0.68

*caveat emptor

Happy Investing 

April 23- Friends with benefits

Recently the public was puzzled and ever seeking for reasons behind the bid offer of SMC on the NAIA expressway bidding against MPI. Let’s just say the bid of SMC is more than 30times over than that of MPI. When money is on the table, certainly it has all been planned and accepted, and the right reasons behind it may be better left untold to the public.  I never come to believe that SMC made a wrong bid offer of 11B. It has all been planned.

I do not go to seek for right answers but I only act where I can create links of the puzzle and act on it by putting some money in the table. No money, no faith.

After all this is a guessing game and doing it is entertaining to me.

*Excerpts in some articles:

*“We were struggling over the P6.5 billion subsidy that we worked with the locators and now the bidders really do not need the subsidy and gave us P11 billion up front,” the DPWH chief said.

*It starts at the existing Skyway then follows the existing road alignments over Sales Avenue, Andrews Avenue, Domestic Road, and NAIA Road, and has entry/exit ramps at Roxas Boulevard, Macapagal Boulevard, and Pagcor City.

Let us see what the big parcel of land is nearby

-Sighted 32 hectares, more or less, of reclaimed land at Aseana Business  Park in Parañaque City.

On December 10, 2010, AMC’s BOD authorized the application for incorporation of Alphaland Marina Club, Inc. (AMCI) to own and operate the Marina Club.

AMCI is a legal subsidiary of ALPHALAND PSE: ALPHA

Ramon S. Ang

-         CEO of SMC

-         Independent Director of ALPHALAND

Roberto V Ongpin

-         CEO of ALPHA

-         Board of Director of SMC

-         Ongpin-led Top Frontier is the single biggest shareholder in San Miguel with a 39% stake.

*As of end-2012, The two companies (SMC & ALPHA) have interlocking ownership. Top Frontier is owned by San Miguel itself as represented by Ang, and by an investor group that includes Ongpin, his nephew Eric Recto and businessmen Iñigo Zobel and Joselito Campos.

*In an interview with local newspaper, The Philippine Star, Ongpin characterized his involvement in San Miguel as “passive” and voiced his faith in the strategies of the conglomerate.

Ang is busy and so is Ongpin…they are both partners in many upcoming projects in the pipeline. They are friends with benefits =)

*These includes the 3-tower Alphaland Makati Place that will have a sports club, a mall and condominium units; the P4-billlion members only Balesin Island Club in Quezon province, the P2-billion Alphaland Marina Club that will have 300 berths for boats of all sizes and the P10-billion 500-hectare Boracay Gateway which will be timed with SMC’s expansion of the Caticlan airport.

*Alphaland Marina Club

Alphaland Marina Club is set to open in the second quarter of 2014. Also, the project will be duplicated in major bay cities in the country like Cebu and Davao.

to implicate RVO to this SMC bold venture shall give some light to me. I do not know for others…Moreover,  I do not ascertain the real course of SMC plan but I see the benefit is inevitable to ALPHA

Sources:

http://ppp.gov.ph/?p=14100

http://www.freedomwall.net/news/alphaland-to-open-a-marina-club-in-2014/

http://www.rappler.com/business/25497-ongpin-remains-passive-investor-in-smc

http://www.alphaland.com.ph/our-projects/marina-club.html

http://www.alphaland.com.ph/our-company/news/news-article/artikel/alphaland-to-build-p2b-yacht-club.html

May 11- SPC 2012

SPC 2012

Out.shares                     1,496,551,803

MarCap                         8,260,965,952.56 


4.110 billion pesos          -Equity attributable to parent company

1.569 billion pesos          -Capital

86.80 million pesos         -Add-in capita

1.785 billion pesos          -Retained earnings

800 million                     -(Appropriated)

5.760 billion pesos          -Assets

2.211 billion pesos          -Total current asset

1.344 billion pesos          -Cash and cash equivalent

1.388 billion pesos          -Liabilities: (597M is Dividend- paid)

Revenue:

2.376 billion pesos          -2012

1.704 billion pesos          -2011
% change: 39.4 %

Net Income:

996.6 million pesos         -2012

419.7 million pesos         -2011
% change: 137.5%

closing price 10-05-2013: 5.25 pesos
EPS : 67 centavos
P/E : 7.84x

B/V per share: 2.75 pesos

Price to book value:1.55x

Forward conservative PE at 17

TP- 17 X 0.67 = 11.39

Current price to TP: 117% upside

Note:

Cons: very small shares floating, liquidity problem, wide spread of bid and ask

Pros: Fit for long term investment, poise to acquire Naga plant coming Bidding by PSALM

Other notes:

Return on Equity:           24.2%
Return on Assets:          17%
Net income margin:        42% 

Current ratio:                1.98 
Debt-to-equity:              0.34   

Dividend Yield:               10%                

May 6- Which bank?

on the search for the bank with a par value of 25pesos per share

I bot LFM before at 40pesos and sold at 49 :-)

Now thinking to buy back at higher prices :-) in 

December is still far...patience is a must!



Source:

LFM Annual Report 2012

MARC 2012

MARC 2012

Out.shares                 1,735,676,781

MarCap                      2,950,650,527.7

2.177 billion pesos          -Equity attributable to parent company     

1,735,676,782 pesos      -Capital:

109,837,311 pesos         -Add-in capital

332 million pesos           -Retained earnings

2.697 billion pesos          -Assets

13 million pesos             -Cash and cash equivalent

76.9 million pesos           -Current asset

330 million pesos            -Current liabilities

519.6 million pesos         -Total liabilities

Revenue:

697.5 million pesos         -2012
842.9 million pesos         -2011
% change:  -20.8%

Net Income: 

137.4 million pesos         -2012
240.3 million pesos         -2011
% change:  -75%

closing price 02-05-2013: 1.70 pesos
EPS : 0.08 centavos
P/E : 21.5x

B/V per share: 1.25 pesos

Price to book value: 1.36x

Note: PE is relatively expensive compared to ORE and NIKL

Info:  

There is a decrease of value in cace (cash and cash equivalent) yearend at 13M from 164M previous year. However small at is seems, 93% of (cace+net annual income) were utilized for investing activities resulting to increase of Equity to 8.4% (169M)- this made the cash and cash equivalent in the end period too little (13M)

It’s not really what it looks like!

-There is also the full settlement of interest bearing loan to Philippine Veterans Bank and Asian Alliance Investment Corp. amounting to 97.3 million

-increase in property and equipment from 725.09 million to 1,176.23 million, or equivalent to a 62.22% increase

-nickel price is at its lowest

Other notes:

Return on Equity:      6.3 %
Return on Assets:      5.0%
Net income margin:   19 % 

Current ratio:           0.23
Debt-to-equity:         0.23   

Source:
MARC 2012