Feb.1 SHNG 3Q 2012 and on Graham's multiple

*Below presentation is patterned after the format from Immovable as a mountain blog

SHNG Q3 2012

assets: 35.104 billion pesos
liabilities: 12.632 billion pesos
equity attributable to parent company: 19.630 billion pesos
paid-up capital: 4.764 billion pesos
cash and cash equivalent: 1.577 billion pesos
retained earnings: 14.037 billion pesos  

Total current asset: 6.630 billion pesos

revenue 9 months 2012: 3.699 billion pesos
revenue 9 months 2011: 2.113 billion pesos
% change: 75 %

net income 9 months 2012: 1.029 billion pesos
net income 9 months 2011: 827.137 million pesos
% change: 24.4%

last closing price (31-01-2013): 3.11 pesos
earnings per share (annualized): 0.288 centavos
trailing price-earnings ratio: 10.8 x
book value per share: 4.12 pesos

price/book value: 0.75x

return on equity: 7.0%

return on assets: 3.9%

net income margin: 27.8%

current ratio: 2.78

debt-to-equity: 0.64

^{Applying Benjamin Multiple:}

PE= 10.8x

P/B.V= 0.75x

PE X B/V= 8.1

Expensive Multiple as per Graham is 22.5

Now I would like to see a potential profit margin using this multiple

22.5 as expensive

Hence, 8.1 still has a 177% upside before it can reach to an expensive level (Graham’s multiple)

Current price is 3.11 + 177% is 8.6 pesos. Honestly I now doubt the numbers unfolding before my eyes…for that matter, market price too cheap.

Given with the above target expensive price level I doubt if it is achievable.  However, the huge retained earnings of 14B pesos (which directly adds up to equity) pulled down the P/B.V. to 0.75 that leads to a wide margin of the multiple 8.1 to reach expensive level.

As we all know, it is the frenzy buying to overwhelm the seller that can move the price to a new heights.

Chart trend has been ascending since 2009 recovery.

Excerpted from an article interview to George Ty

by Will soon Flourish 5 days ago:

How many rooms will your Grand Hyatt Manila have? Will it be the best in the metropolis?

I would like to say so, because in many parts of Asia, the Grand Hyatt is the best hotel. In Tokyo, the No. 1 hotel is Grand Hyatt; also in Beijing, Hong Kong, Taipei, Seoul and Jakarta. The Grand Hyatt Hotel is the most prestigious in the entire Asian region. But the one making the most money is the Shangri-La Hotel chain.

Why?

One of the reasons is the Shangri-La chain owns most of their hotels, while the Grand Hyatt chain only manages most of their hotels in Asia.

Caveat

Jan.31 stock monitoring for the coming weeks

PRIM- 20% shares remaining of my original position (the gain itself). Capital + small profit out. Highly probable that it will be deliberately retraced near 1.8-1.9 when participants are fond of fibo 50% retracement. 

If I am wrong-      profits continue to go north. 
If I am right-        gtc is waiting somewhere on that level. 

For now, will observe the game in the sideline...

ARA- while players are busy on prim few sold it impatiently.. I suspect if money will not play with prim tomorrow players can shift here. Technically ARA is poised for a round 2 run up. 

If I am wrong-      I would be safe to sell it if psyc support at 1peso is broken.
If I am right-        will still hold

ZHI- As I said on the previous entry, capital is out. The gain is trimming down a bit.. not much action today. Since I have little position here and just want to study some moves, I can take zhi out of my monitoring henceforth.. 

***

While property stock is zooming up, I am buying in tranches one stock seemed to be away from the eyes of many. I am almost done, if not finished already, in buying until it will start to move up again. At the moment, it rests on the 30day SMA. Looks like a safe entry but I am somewhere near on its historic highs..

I will disclose the subject property stock in appropriate time, or maybe later... stby


Clue: 
George Ty even acknowledged the company's good standing in terms of profit.



A quote from the great kagemusha!

Great trades, good times!

Jan.30- updated stock monitoring

I just saw PSEi went near to 6300 the moment I opened my account..did not verify further if it did reach 6300 before noon upon seeing all the active gainers were Green. It's all that matters to me, for today...

PRIM went to its ceiling- 75% capital out. At stake is 25% shares + 100%gain. Bahala na si batman. If I gained 1 peso, 1 remain with 50cents bet. Total bet 1.5 pesos. 

Did not go all out of my capital since the protection on the bid side was a stronghold. Highly probable continuation of a run for the next trading session.

...and the uncertainty is still in the clouds... PRIM disclosure:

No knowledge of what could have triggered the price-PRIM

My previous blog entry regarding prim:

Optimus PRIMe

Fibo retracements applied on:

ZHI- Taken out capital. Gain is gaining.

ARA- Hold

Others:

SPC- Nothing to do. just watching

Portfolio Equity value is still dragged by ATNB...momentarily 

Jan. 27- Motherhood and a music

"Woman, enjoy what motherhood has to offer and not the physically consequences it has transform you. You are better off sexier to look natural as a mother than to stress yourself in regaining the old you."

I see that there is a misconception with some women on their stage of motherhood when they are blaming it for their physical worsening transformation. Does not look right to me. 

Many of them are doing too much effort to look good when, in my opinion, a natural feature of a mother image can look more beautiful. Up to them...kung saan sila masaya.

I'm not speaking of my wife :-)

...and in the sideline, I share this good music about a motherhood. Fiat Commercial.

Welcome to the Motherhood

My Daily Activities

My Daily Activities

The chronological activities below do not supersede my presence to work. This will show you how I manage my time on this period of No project, Lay up condition of our unit. To maximize the luxury of time, I incorporate my own activities in order to regain the lifestyle I have always wanted even when I am at work. and of course this will help me keep my sanity intact.

0608-               First alarm then a snooze

0638-               2nd alarm and get up from bed (no breakfast)

0700-               Office

·   Do some light exercises. Breathe fresh air and say thanksgiving as many as I can

·   Hand over with the outgoing duty.

·   Prepare work orders, have it printed and give to my Foreman.

0715-             Internet call. Tabs open are:

·   Facebook

·   Trading account (six-pack,  chart, stock Quotes, Gainers & losers, ticker)

·   Trader’s forum

·   PSE website (Company Disclosure)

·   Bravorat blog

·   News website (yahoo.ph, Business Inquirer)

·   Others (sulit.com, yahoomail, youtube, google for trading/Investing methods)

0730-             Start Trading period (while munching either croissant/hotcake/cheesebread and a cup of espresso)

*Only few variety of bread prepared

Things I do during trading period

·   I review charts to analyze stocks probable trend. I enjoy it a lot.  

·   Put my screen to either gainers and losers page or six-pack presentation to see   any price action in my picks, and sometimes on ticker if available

·   Order settings when there is a need to buy and sell

·   Reading Company disclosures and Follow forums

0800-0805               Check around to have a situational awareness of the surroundings (5min)

0805-0830               Phone call to my family. Continue to observe Internet call e.i. monitoring stocks if necessary,  updating social news thru facebook, reading news, refresh list of disclosures, read forum, updating Bravorat blog, and reading interesting trading/investing methods

0830-0900               Final monitoring Trending movement on stocks is mostly evident at 9am.      

0900-                      Pizza time (since my company is Italian)

0915-1000               Review charts and check last prices. Read Forum, update my trading plan for the next trading day, if needed

1000-1030               Espresso time with Admin officer

1030-1215               Free time^* situational awareness*

1220-1300               Lunch time

1300-1600               Free time* situational awareness*

1600-1700               Physical exercise. Basketball shooting on deck, music time, bonding time with my crew.

1700-1730               Personal Hygiene

1730-1900               Back to Office. Free time*

1900-1920               BBC news

1920-2000               Dinner time and bonding with my crew

2000-2100               Spiritual meditation

2100-2200               (While TV is tuned to BBC) Open laptop for review personal accounts if all is in control, check annual plans if we are still on the course, final checks for my notes on my trading plans for tomorrow

2200-Sleep             Prepare to visit slumber land. (Book reading) currently reading (2^nd time) Art of War by Sun tzu.

*Free time defined as, I can do whatever I want to do. Most of the time I end up sitting on the computer for any readings which can help me boost my confidence in my trading and investing strategies. Reading Company Quarterly financial statement is one that is time consuming.

*Situational awareness defined as, in my position assumed I got to have awareness and control of what is going on around the workplace. My crew knows what to do but for any managerial decision and questions on technical level of safety I have to be prepared to take such responsibility in this case, be aware of what is currently going on to have an idea of what is there to decide and answer if situation demands.

Time check: 1830 (free time)

Jan. 22- SPC on Bollinger band

Contracting bands warn that the market is about to trend: the bands first converge into a narrow neck, followed by a sharp price movement. The first breakout is often a false move, preceding a strong trend in the opposite direction

MACD:     Buy signal
STS:        Oversold

Action:     Bought more

Caveat

Jan. 21- LFM 3Q 2012 and on Graham's multiple

*Below presentation is patterned after the format from Immovable as a mountain blog

LFM Q3 2012

assets: 2.822 billion pesos
liabilities: 564.67 million pesos
equity attributable to parent company: 2.258 billion pesos
paid-up capital: 500 million pesos
cash and cash equivalent: 273.47 million pesos
retained earnings: 1.727 billion pesos

Total current asset: 1.829 billion pesos

revenue 9 months 2012: 373.4 million pesos
revenue 9 months 2011: 302.3 million pesos
% change: 23.5 %

Advantage point: Under Company’s Financial Information

Since the Company is dependant on imported materials such as wheat grains, it is very much

affected by global prices of these products and the fluctuation in the exchange rate of the U.S. Dollar (US$)

against the Philippine peso. The appreciation or depreciation of the Philippine peso against the U.S. Dollar (US$) will have a material impact in the company’s future or long-term liquidity.

*Peso is going stronger against Dollar hence will give LFM more purchasing power to buy imported products as mentioned and consequently giving a better margin for profit.

net income 9 months 2012: 215.7 million pesos
net income 9 months 2011: 178.4 million pesos
% change: 20.9%

last closing price (21-01-2013):        48 pesos
earnings per share (annualized):       5.75 pesos
trailing price-earnings ratio:             8.35 x
book value per share:                      45.2 pesos
price/book value:                            1.06x

ROE: 12.7%

ROA: 10%

Net income margin: 57.8 %

current ratio: 5.0

debt-to-equity: 0.25

^{Applying Benjamin Multiple:}

PE= 8.35

B/V= 1.06x

PE X B/V= 8.85

Expensive Multiple as per Graham is 22.5

Now I would like to see a potential profit margin using this multiple

22.5 as expensive

Hence, 8.85 still has a 154% upside before it can reach to an expensive level (Graham’s multiple)

Current price is 48 + 154% is 122 pesos target until proven otherwise by 4Q numbers.

Note:

LFM did not disclose 2Q earnings and I think the cause of the downtrend of the price from July-Aug; from there I started monitoring. I am attracted to LFM despite its liquidity problem mainly for the dividend, and the uncanny trend transpiring last August was suspicious when Christmas season was approaching, peso going strong against the dollar should result to a better ground to increase earnings, yet the price was going down. A certain force may have been shooing away unwanted investors out of LFM. When I check the numbers, the movement does not look right; joining LFM looks right for me.

It was a chance also for me to position that time while other rats are feasting on RFM.

PE15x= 86.25

PE20x= 115 (122 @ 21x)

PE30x= 172.5 (PE of RFM)

Caveat

Jan. 17- MARC 3Q with the application of Graham's Multiple

*Below presentation is patterned after the format from Immovable as a mountain blog

Marcventures Q3 2012

assets: 2.731 billion pesos
liabilities: 506.67 million pesos
equity attributable to parent company: 2.224 billion pesos
paid-up capital: 1.735 billion pesos
cash and cash equivalent: 22.59 million pesos
retained earnings: 379.39 million pesos

Total current asset: 146,757,424

revenue 9 months 2012: 254.8  million pesos
revenue 9 months 2011: 177.2 million pesos
% change: 43.7 %

Advantage point: Nickel price to recover. Consider that 2011 numbers taken only from August (1Q operation)

net income 9 months 2012: 184.8million pesos
net income 9 months 2011: 124.0 million pesos
% change: 49%

last closing price (17-01-2013): 1.88 pesos
earnings per share (annualized): 0.142 centavos
trailing price-earnings ratio: 13.2 x
book value per share: 1.28 pesos
price/book value: 1.47x
return on equity: 11%
return on assets: 9%
net income margin: 72.5 % 

A ratio of profitability calculated as net income divided by revenues, or net profits divided by sales. It measures how much out of every dollar of sales a company actually keeps in earnings.

*It gives an earning of 72.5 cents for 1 peso of sales

current ratio: 5.4 

an idea of the company's ability to pay back its short-term liabilities (debt and payables) with its short-term assets (cash, inventory, receivables). The higher the current ratio, the more capable the company is of paying its obligations. A ratio under 1 suggests that the company would be unable to pay off its obligations if they came due at that point

debt-to-equity: 0.227 

A high debt/equity ratio generally means that a company has been aggressive in financing its growth with debt. This can result in volatile earnings as a result of the additional interest expense.

^{Applying Graham's Multiple:}

PE= 13.2

P/ B.V= 1.47x

PE X B/V= 19.40

Expensive Multiple as per Graham is 22.5

Now I would like to see a potential profit margin using this multiple

22.5 as expensive...

Hence, 19.4 still has a % upside to reach Graham's expensive level. 

Current price is 1.88 + 16% is 2.18 pesos target until proven otherwise by 4Q numbers. Should the numbers in 4Q improve, a lower PE and B/V will further increase a profit margin towards 22.5

See the chart for yourself for the imminent trend shift

Caveat

Jan. 16- Have you chosen your multi bagger stock?

I have read yesterday a research study from a certain investing firm about FOUR PROVEN APPROACHES TO PICKING MULTIBAGGER STOCKS

So what is this all about? Simply how to find stocks amongst hundreds others who could give us the highest returns over a long term period. Multibagger as defined is a multiple of your return. It's just a colloquial term. It means 2 bagger is doubling your return, 10 bagger is ten times. If I invested 10k on a stock then I got a return of 100K, that's 10 bagger!

There are four ways as stated in the research:

- Buying stocks with low price in relation to Earning

- Buying stocks with low price in relation to Book value

- Buying stocks with low price in relation to liquidating value

- Buying stocks using Benjamin Graham's magic multiple


To summarize as per Graham's profitable margin:

- Market price must not reach over 15X of its earnings

-Market price must not reach over 1.5X of its Book value
whereas: BV= Summation of Asset & Liabilities/ shares outstanding

- Market price should cost less than their net current asset value (NCAV) and thereby no value to the fixed assets.

- Graham's magic multiple of lower than 22.5 have generated more returns than those whose output was greater.
This is P/E 15 X BV 1.5 = 22.5

Any lower multiple than 22.5 is what he suggested a good margin of profit for the longer term...we can also expect as what the research suggested as a MULTIBAGGER!

Have you spotted your multibagger stock? I have picks

LFM and SPC they may not manifest for the meduim term but they are already giving out dividends, and time will be my friend.

Breaking note:


PDTC Dividend Advisement: SPC Cash Dividend

Please be informed per PDTC advisement CA-2013-014 that the cash dividend declared by SPC POWER
CORP. (SPC) with record date December 28, 2012, payable on January 15, 2013 will be credited only after
PDTC clears the funds, which is likely to be on January 17, 2013.

...and that will be tomorrow! 8.3% yield 
If I was able to get the previous dividend last June total yield could have been 10.4%---

An investment instrument giving out at least 10% yield for my money is my choice of long term investment. 


God Bless everyone!

Jan.8 snowman

Since most of my picks now are for long haul my monitoring is not that intensive. Not kinda following the price action on the ticker buying and selling for every opportunity spotted. My case now is just to fix my computer screen in the six pack page for checking my 6 selected picks time to time for any significant price movement I need to act upon.

All of them fairly move today- no significant changes on the price therefore there's nothing to do. Sitting tight and looking up in the sky were heavy falling of snow is so mesmerizing.

The sight of the snow was conducive to thinking many things..some of my crew went to make snowman while I stay on the sideline contemplating how to make the impossible to possible. 

It is 1 hour before my resting period and I haven't got any idea to make things possible..I am torn between prestige and practicality. 

...I think I better go out and help my friends make snowman possible 

Jan. 7 MOnitoring updates- bisaya version

Grabe ang pgka green karon sa PSE, dia tan-aw ragud ninjo aring wa:


karong adlaw pod ang pinaka taas na index sa tanang panahon 6044.9..grabeh na ni! Green na halos tanan.

Kung wala mo nasayud ako nang gibaligya ang PNX ug WEB. dugay rah.

dugay man gud pod wala molihok ning duha kung kanus-a dghan pd nanggi sirit nga stocks left and right. 

Tan-aw nang BPI. 60 ra na niagi kadtong Jan.2012 karon 102 na, halos x2 puhunan...tapos ang uban tua sa mutual funds..no further comment.

Ga pokus ko karon sa PSEI kay sobra na kaayo minggara. taas na kaayo ang gisaka matungod kay nadecisionahan ra kunohay ang fiscal cliff sa US niagi uroy mura na kuno naresolbahan na ang porblema. Sa akong opinion ani, mgtikadugay ning wala ngpakabana sa problema mgtika bug-at ang sakit kung moabot na ang panahon mgcorrect na ang PSEI sama uban sa mga market pod sa laing nasud. Pero unique jud pod ning Pinas, mahitungod kay laing systema man sa pgtrade..duwa-duwa na lagi labas ani. Jack and Poy, kinsa mahuli baligya, siya unggoy. Asa ang fundamental ana mga brothers?

Bisan mga walay ginansiya nga mga kompanya nagsi rally pod. murag mao! pero mau lagi, kinahanglan lang na ug kwarta palihukon nang stocks para maimbita pod ang ubang imbestors mopalit tapos kng motaas na, kadtong unang mga naka palit ibaligya sa uwahing mingsulod. louy lagi. Mao nang nigurado nako karon nga butang jud ko sa akong kwarta sa mga siguradong mga niginansiya ug mghatag ug mga dividendo. next week diay dawat napod tah ug kwarta ani gikan spc, salamat napod.

SPC naa diay disclosure sa SPC ganiha:

PSALM extension of contract to SPC

Aw sure na ni. padayun ang contrata, mao pod usab ang dakong ginansiya!

wala nay angay e estorya pa kay paborit stocks ni nako.

MARC nako naka sertipiket na. kita lang ko sa chart niya karon adlawa mura man ug naka untol na sa pinaka ubos nga presyo. hinay-hinay na baby ug porma sa letrang V! mau pod lagi naka sertipiket so walay kurat, pang tas-anay ug utong ni pards! pang pa mana ba sa anak puhon...nganu MARC? barato presyo sa nickel, dako mn ug earnings pero gamay lang niagi, mgtika taas production, huwat pod tah ug mining law- hapit na lagi, maayo nman pod ang relasyons nato sa China, maayo pd management. Panahon rajud gihuwat.

ANTB- murag kinahanglan na nako bantay bantayan. akong plano ani...hutdan na bitaw ko ug plano ani..pero klaro kaayong giduwaan ni..simple lang, kng naay nanghilabot, naay interesado..walay ginansiya ning kumpanyaha, pero dakog future sa solar projects, puhon.

ag PRIM mao lang gihapon.Usa pod ni lugi, pero wala ko nang invite ug palit ani..never man...huwat lang ko naay mopalit (reverse merger) nga dakong kumpanya para maluwas sila. ngcge lang tigum ning First Metro buyer. dili na ni moubos pa sa 1.15..kung makabasa ang buyer aning blog nako, psycho sigurado..paubuson pa niya price kunuhay..pwede na add karon hapit npod mg expire ila corporation life next month. naa naba kaha white knight pra ma isalba ang beznes?

LFM- kadawat nako niagi ug dividends. ako pang e withdraw karon pag uli nako puhon..bantay2 lang kay pwede ni nako eh liquidate. pang down pod ni ug Subaru BRZ kung makaya puhon.. pero pgkakaron, 114 pa ako target ani..PE25x bah.

Mau sah ni laman..lisod diay ning waray, bol-anon, tagalog, english ug italiano mg mix kay gara na kaayo ug sinultian. tog sah ko. naa pay ugma. ciao