Sept.27 PCKH

Following the recent profit taking half of my position of REG, I have positioned quietly in the next stock. I may now divulge since it had already kicked off just today..I didn't expect it though but hoping it would retrace back somewhere at 7 or even lower than that should be favorable to continue my accumulation.

Let's talk about PCKH Pancake house

excerpted from COL
The Group forecasts to grow its profit by 70 percent for the year 2012 with the continuing efforts of the Team and with the full­ year contribution of Yellow Cab and expansion efforts overseas, mainly in Southeast Asia, Southern China and the Middle East. We confirm further that the group is now focused on Qatar and Kuwait. We are on the process of expanding in Malaysia and seeking partners in Indonesia and franchise operators in the Southern part of China. We hope to have clarified the news article in the interest of trading participants and the investing public.

Financials

I do keep an excel format monitoring sheet to help me choose stocks showing improve earnings and projected dividends...from there I can compute "in my own understanding" the probable price it can reach set by my own convenient margin..

Let me show you my own computation and perhaps justify my buying of PCKH

Outstanding shares: 237,795,455

Retained Earning 1H: 258,074,711 (less 35M divs last June)

Earnings:

1Q 33,195,217

2Q 16,920,444

Annualized Earning:  100M/outstanding shares

EPS: 0.42

PE of JFC:  32 (closest comparison)

PE of RFM: 25

I am opt to use PE of 25 to be conservative on the target price

PE 25 x 0.42 = 10.5 pesos PCKH 

and PE 30 x 0.42 = 12.6 pesos (close to 12.2 its historic high)

Should 3Q releases at least 25M earning then target price is not far fetched...still I am hoping for the price to remain close to 7 as much as possible so I may resume my accumulation. I would like to see the price to realize its potential just when the earnings of stores abroad is incorporated.

 




 

Sept.25 REG

and I remember I have a blog...

It's been quite a while I have not said anything of my trading. Actually, I can say I am now into investing...for dividends and little of nibbling from price appreciation. 

Most recent rise is from REG. Sold half and the other for cash divs entitlement. It really pays to be patient and to remain what you believe in after a careful research on stocks that can surprise us with catalyst such as increase dividend pay out. 

at 3pesos- div yield is 10%

at 4pesos-div yield is 7.5%

...very illiquid

It will exist in my portfolio as a regular dividend giver, and not something else. And following the advise of a good teacher, I will buy shares that will be mistakenly sold down to my price. 

While the run up could last til the ex date, I may use the profit to the next stock while there is still no noise and bigger chance to buy it at a lower price. I am expecting REG price may fall on the ex date- this is my time for a buy back.

I am eyeing another stock. Same approach as I have chosen REG. Disclosure will be out soon once I completed my buys.

new Avatar

My new avatar in FM. This six legged dog means that when at work, as a worker in this company, you will have to use all your legs, making it even six legs, to hurry up any work which has to be done- as my co-workers always quip about this logo.

I chose this as my avatar because this reminds me of the importance of applying speed in everything I do. May it be  my career and in making money, speed with precision is a must.

Sept.11 PX-LC conspiracy

I like making stories. Stories of conspiracy is one I am thrilled the most. 

Today LC shoot up from 1.13 to 1.25 (10.62% up) in a day with a convincing volume and it's been quite a while already to see such for LC.

Some say if IRR is signed it is directly influential to the approval of FTAA for LC FSE.

Without a disclosure it will remain a good story to tell.

Remember before during the heated issue on Kalayaan stand off where China wanted a piece of the area, same area where PX has an ownership thru PXP. Next thing we knew PXP shoot up to new unimaginable heights from 11.5/sh to as high as 35/sh in a week..triple your money..Any delay caused by the stand off is already compensated by their gains.

Well today for LC may still be considered a rally for a day. 

The closing of the Padcal mines of PX is due to the leak and some environmental damage issues. This heated news sprouted coincidentally with the LC run up.. 

Is it valid to think an angle where PX guys uses sister stocks such as MA/ZHI/LC to be their alternative mining playground to offset some of their losses?

We can see tomorrow if LC will dance like that of PXP before.

-Do not believe this story. This is merely formulating a story to console myself of not getting a piece of the run up, hehehe...

No trades today. Just watching from the sideline.

Sept.7 ATNB

Sold down few shares of IMI to buy more ATNB. Well, IMI is at halt near 4php and still a long way to go for the catalyst (dividend)

Why ATNB?

-Subsidiary has large tract of land 320 hectares which is assigned for their future installation of solar PV power generation project.

-Renewable energy in the Philippines is still at its early stage of introduction. I can wait when RE here will soon be enforced as aggressive as it is in the US.

-Service contract already issued by DoE to the company as part of their expansion program to renewable energy. 

-R.E. > Capital stock (Ongoing sales on Investment properties worth 1.6B)

-price is at historic low

-Very small shares traded

-loss from -12M 1Q to -2.5M 2Q

-Legal proceeding regarding the increase of authorized capital issue will be in favor to the company as suggested by the company's counsel.

-money is now too deep to cut the loss, hehe

Will go to UP KNL to meet my friends and have drinks. will jog around the campus early sunday before going for an eb with FM members.

Sept.6

Off from trading to complete this MARC stocks conversion to certificate. I have applied the upliftment before thru COL but when I was already on vacation in the south the latter sent email to report to BDO stock transfer agent to do the same thing, fill up a form and sign...sigh

Just monitoring stock til noon today for the above plan.

Sept.4

Back to active trading after a long two weeks of agony. One week in the hospital and another in the wake of my niece. May our little angel rest in the presence of God.

I will dedicate my performance in my trading to my niece. I know I will do better  for she will whisper to me what to pick... 

I did a lot of trading today. 
Sold MRC to fund the buy on EG and ATNB
EG aep 0.035
ATNB aep 2.169

IMI and FJP are intact
PRIM for re assessment if there is a significant development on the information disclosed regarding the interested investor.



...sa iyong paglisan, ang tanging pabaon ko..ay pag-ibig