8.24.2014

Aug.24 It's more fun offline!

The night before, I happened to watch a link on fb about the effect of too much time on the internet and as a result lack of sleep. After watching I turned off my laptop and went to sleep. I slept for 10 hours.

When my eyes were open I lingered in the bed for awhile. I reached for something to read and I got the book "The greatest salesman in the World," flipped some pages and read scroll 5 "I will live this day as if it is my last". I started to recollect "to do" things I have written in my notes and chose the items that'll fit for a blessed Sunday ahead. Well my laptop was not on sight and chose to be offline for a day.

Here's my day with my family:
just before I pour hot water for my coffee, someone knocked on my door. It was my neighbor. I am glad I was able to help him. helping someone is nice to start a day...thereafter

12:00- 14:00 played Xbox360 with my wife (first time playing together with her)
14:00- 15:30 joined my wife and baby watching Monster, Inc. cartoon movie
15:30- 16:30 Do my laundry
17:00- 18:30 while cee is baking, i go to play basketball with my villagers
19:30- 21:00 Hear Holy mass
21:00- 21:30 Dinner. Cee's prepared the food I have requested her the other day...that is without reminding her. thanks for the surprise. 
I love myself. But today, I love more my family!

As of this writing, I have not turned online yet. I will do later, of course. I still have things in my notes to accomplish i.e. update accounting, wrestling play with baby, watch Vikings episode "THe choice" season 2, and reply to some emails before going to rest. Since tomorrow is a holiday in the market, I can wake up after 10am(?)

If this day was my last, I am very happy. I gave more time with my family. Simply because I chose to go offline. It's not like this when the market is open on weekdays. And do stock reviews on weekends- I am aware of that. Much more if I am abroad. It' 24 hours I am away from them. Time with family is so precious to neglect. I feel that today. 

There are more good benefits indeed to be offline. I for sure missed many true things whenever I start put my face in front of the screen. Important now is that I feel the significance of making it real than illusional, getting touch than imaginary, and most of all moving than sitting all day long! Today is my last and tomorrow will be another :)

8.20.2014

Aug. 20 Benguet Corp (BC) 1H 2014

Benguet Corp (BC) 1H 2014

195M -Out.shares
1.84 billion pesos -Retained earnings

7.21 billion pesos -Total Asset
3.59 billion pesos -Total Liabilities
3.61 billion pesos -Equity attributable to parent company

1.91 billion pesos -Current Asset
2.04 billion pesos -Current liabilities

Revenue:
2.34 billion pesos –1H 2014
1.259 billion pesos –1H 2013
% change: 86%

Net Income:
227 million pesos –1H 2014
36.5 million pesos –1H 2013
% change: 521%

closing price 20-Aug-2014: 10.60 pesos
ANNUALIZED EPS: 2.33
PE: 3.94             

BV per share: 18.54 pesos
Price to book value: 0.57x

Other notes:

Return on Equity: 12.5%
Return on Assets: 6.30 %
Net income margin: 9.7%

Current ratio: 2.0
Debt-to-equity: 1.0

Expensive Multiple as per Benjamin Graham is 22.5 (PE x P/BV)

BV=18.54
P=10.60
P/BV= 0.57
PE= 3.94
BGM= 2.24

Happy Investing!


Aug.19- SPC 1H 2014

Aug.19- SPC 1H 2014

1.5B -Out.shares
6.72 B -MarCap 

4,21 billion pesos -Retained earnings

7.58 billion pesos -Total Asset
1,33 billion pesos -Total Liabilities
5.74billion pesos -Equity attributable to parent company

2.86 billion pesos -Current Asset
1.08 billion pesos -Current liabilities

Revenue:
1.91billion pesos –1H 2014
1.28 billion pesos –1H 2013
% change: 77%

Net Income:
854 million pesos –1H 2014
342 million pesos –1H 2013
% change: 150%

closing price 19-Aug-2014: 4.49 pesos
ANNUALIZED EPS: 1.14
PE: 3.94             

BV per share: 3.84 pesos
Price to book value: 1.17x

Other notes:

Return on Equity: 30%
Return on Assets: 22.5 %
Net income margin: 44.6%

Current ratio: 2.65
Debt-to-equity: 0.23

Expensive Multiple as per Benjamin Graham is 22.5 (PE x P/BV)

BV=3.84
P=4.49
P/BV= 1.14
PE= 3.94
BGM= 4.49

Happy Investing!


7.19.2014

July 19. PCKH memories

When I saw PCKH reached 90pesos per shares, I immediately computed how much I could make had I kept my 5000 shares.  That is about 450,000php!
A whopping 1,150% in 1 yr and 10months of investing; talk about a very very very Happy investing
But it didn’t happen that way.

I once started buying PCKH Sept. 2012 when it was at its lowest. Gained a measly 5000 pesos by selling somewhere at 8.20-8.40. Since then, I jumped in and out whenever there where chances to ride on. Do you know why I sold?

Because I am human! A creature that is very susceptible to mercurial emotions. Having that gain on this very illiquid stock while the market was showing activity was already a cue for me to escape.  With 5000php profit I brought my family to Pancake house at SM Mega Mall and spend it all in one seating. I was very happy.
Did I regret selling? Nope. I have done just well.


What I can do now is to stay with another potential “PCKH” stock and hope for the best.  May we all have a very very very Happy Investing!

ERGUnomic Trading. How do you do it?

The stages of ERGUNOMICS

To achieve great winnings in trading stocks one should complete the stages of Ergunomics. Not all stocks are applicable to Ergunomic trading.

To win great trades one must put his money on a certain stock that is earning/ advancing, foremost;

Therefore, the first stage is to spot a stock that gives you a position to EARN, thus E on Ergunomics stands for Earning.

There are many ways to earn on stocks. You know what those are. But for a trader to complete the stages of Ergunomics there are few stocks which will present the opportunity to you. Not all will give you the position to move to the next stage where you will have to weigh on the risk the momentary stage you are at. Once you are now earning on the stock, the time will really come when the question on your head is, when you will have to sell for a profit?

Some say profit is a profit- but this is an average thinking.
The Rich focus on earnings, not saving. Average may settle to win some, but rich wants to be the Champion.

Have you asked yourself while looking back at charts, what if I have not sold before? The profit could have multiplied by... Well you haven't applied the Ergunomics for that matter. So in this case, when earning is tapping your risk assessment, then this is the time you have to decide whether you have to deal the second stage at hand which is RISK. Otherwise sell for a profit and forget dealing with Risk on this stage.

Reward is most of the time, if not all, associated with risk. If other says not all, then they think always safe. You will never get the chance to be granted by what Luck has to offer if you stay always safe...Getting rich is not safe. It needs mastering of effective system to win against resistance and take advantage of the support you encounter along the way until you arrive to your destination of choice. If the path to richness is easy then everyone can easily be rich.

So to recap ERGUNOMICS...

Earnings- finding stock that will give you the position to earn and put you in a situation to advance to the second stage that is...

RISK- risk involves time. It needs decisions without delays at some point or you will see the opportunity dissipating. Good decision is good, bad is bad. But the worse is indecision. Therefore stocks that fit on this category are the ones with speed, not necessarily ceiling plays but the speed of price appreciation is what many believe that it is already associated with risk. This for sure needs speedy decision! Not selling too soon is a result of tough and speedy decision even when the situation calls already for profit taking.

Before going to the 3rd stage, let me give you an example where I can tell a close scenario to applying the Ergunomics successfully.

APM- price went up to 7x in less than a month. It did give you earning on the 1st day showing us a convincing volume but there is Risk presented to you and consequently many have sold early or saved some profits... I was attracted when it reached 40 million trade value on its first day (if my memory serves well). I was in Moscow airport that time.  Oh! That time, too, i bot LFM at 38-40. Escaped at 58-60 
Not to mention that I have also issues that I have not escaped...  They are in losing positions at the moment.

There is this question in your thought in retrospect, what if I have not sold? What if I have not traded in and out? I could have...when it stabilized at 0.16
It looks impossible to do, right? But what if? Same scenario can be applied to MAKE, PXP, LTG, MIH, or PRIM? 

Fast forward in 2014 , we have PCKH that didn’t look back from 7. I accumulated pckh at 7.20-7.50. You don’t need to ask me if I have sold it or not.  Other few issues sky rocketed and only to land somewhere they have launched: alpha,mac,spc, to name a few. As of this time, I have 2 picks that is on Risk stage...all ready to welcome the next stage.

Because the third stage should open the door closer to great winnings- Allow me to welcome you, Mr. GREED

Your decision on the risk stage must be guided to welcoming greed.

We all know what greed is. And that further separates the Rich from the Average in the wise use of greed in all aspects in life.
Greed is good all the time- in the stock market world. One cannot be greedy when losing. To go after for more profit maybe a touch or two on your greed will do.

..and losing is bad all the time

When you feel the greed creeping in while seeing the profit growing then congrats you are now one step to finishing the stage to a greatest trade in your life.

By the way, we are talking about how to get to the comfortably rich trade by following the stages of Ergunomics. Should you fail before getting to greed that means your stock was not qualified to applying your greed.  By simply putting, it was not the right stock for applying Ergunomics. So go find another one. In any case, you just earn decently or may lose few. First stage is earning and it is a must. You cannot advance to risk and be greedy if your position is losing. There is no such knowledge of applying greed when losing. It must be earning and growing.

After the greed, we go to the stage of UNCERTAINTY.

Rich people's comfort is on the uncertainty of the situation. Uncertainty favors the people with strong convictions; people who believe in themselves. While you have surpassed the 3 stages of Ergunomics you will know what to do with the stock if you feel the uncertainty is already clouding you.

Applying Ergunomics to a qualified stock will definitely bring fortune that you can never imagine to achieve, relatively to the money you bet. Just a reminder, not all stock will present the opportunity to you hence not all is applicable to the Ergunomics. When there is, you have the stages of Ergunomics for you to be guided in order to achieve the best trades of your life. Remember this, when everything is uncertain- whoever is able to undergo the 3 stages has no reason at all to not-know what to do on the last stage.
 
Good luck and may you trade Ergunomically!

ERGUNOMIC-    application of implied law to trading qualified stocks by undergoing specific stages to achieve significant profit comfortably.

ERGU + LAW=    ERGUNOMICS

Earning-       stock that is earning and may allow you to advance to risk stage
Risk-            An earning position. Assessing whether to hold for further increase of profit or lose it.
Greed-         helps you overcome the risk for a great deal of reward
Uncertainty- Congratulations. This will give you comfort in whatever you do on the top. Sell or hold you will feel that you are right. The Rich’s comfortable level.

May we find a stock to trade ERGUnomically!

5.17.2014

May.16- PetroEnergy Resources Corp. (PERC) 1Q 2014

PetroEnergy Resources Corp. (Q1 2014)

273.8 M
 -Out.shares
1.56 B -MarCap
 

1USD:43.5PHP

275 million pesos -Capital stock
543 million pesos -Retained earnings
481 million pesos -Cash and cash equivalent

4.38
 billion pesos -Total Asset
2.86 billion pesos -Total Liabilities
1.99 billion pesos -Equity attributable to parent company

818 million pesos -Current Asset
225 million pesos -Current liabilities 

Revenue:
240 million pesos –Q1 2014
127
 million pesos –Q1 2013
% change: 189%

Net Income:
152 million pesos –Q1 2014
24.7 million pesos –Q1 2013
% change: 615%

closing price 16-05-2014: 5.71 pesos
ANNUALIZED EPS: 2.22
PE: 2.57              
 

BV per share: 7.27 pesos
Price to book value: 0.78x


Note: market price is below Book Value(BV)

Other notes:

Return on Equity: 7.6%
Return on Assets: 3.5 %
Net income margin: 63%

Current ratio: 1.53
Debt-to-equity: 1.43

Expensive Multiple as per Benjamin Graham is 22.5 (PE x P/BV)

BV=7.27
P=5.71
P/BV= 0.78
PE= 2.22
BGM= 1.73 

Happy Investing!

Screen prints from F.S. 








5.14.2014

BUY an Asset to BUY a liability

Our Village has organized a Basketball tournament and the opening games will start on March 15. The players are grouped into different regions of the Philippines, and I am on the Eastern Visayas team. 

Seldom only that I get the chance to play in the tournament due to my work schedule so I am buying myself a new pair of shoes. I have few other good shoes that I can spare for the games but this time I prefer to buy any of the new release of Nike hyperdunk. Doing so is tantamount to buying a liability and this is not so me, hehe

Liability- any purchase that does not give back any gain nor return of my capital.

Buy asset to buy a liability is the way of the wise. Putting it the other way around, "buy liability to buy asset" is never heard of and it cannot be done.

My principle in buying a liability

Before to buy a liability, buy first an Asset. An asset that can appreciate in price and use its gain to purchase a liability. Here, I share to you my story so I can well explain what I mean about this method. I hope you consider it educational. 

There are many kinds of asset that may help you give an opportunity to make a gain. In my case I have it more convenient and efficient in purchasing shares of a company through the stock market and selling these shares at a higher price. You may also buy any real estate and other stuffs that you can sell later on and hopefully selling it with a gain. However there could be a liquidity issue in this kind of assets especially real estate. I'm talking about the quickest way you can exchange the asset back into cash so you can buy your liability the day after. 

And there is this quickest way of cashing out while invested and it is through investing on a "Bank deposit".  This is the simplest form of investing since you still get some gain which is at most 1% of your fund. Sad but true, bank deposits cause you more losses than gains in the long run due to inflation and other factors that decreases the purchasing power of a currency :P

The basic thing to consider is the purchase of any asset that when you are ready to sell you can execute the sale transaction the fastest way possible and in a shortest time frame to achieve your target. 

In investing, the exit strategy is more important than the entry.  


The Liability 

Basketball Nike shoes.
Price range 6,000-8,000 php


The Asset

Feb. 25 
Buy: 1.50 pesos per share
50,000 shares x 1.50 = 75,000 Capital
Sold:1.85 avg. (23.3%)
Gain:17,500php

a screen print on that gain:




If it takes a long time to achieve the amount, then think that liability does not just come to you that fast. Therefore be glad. You see I just don't buy a liability. I plan it by choosing which Asset to buy.

Utilized the money created in the air to buy liability, not with your capital. In this way investing becomes more exciting when you know, at some point, you will get what you want.
The excitement of gaining and then having free money to buy your liability is one of the best fulfillment you can experience.    

*the sample stock I have shown above is not a recommend to buy. I have no more ATNB as of this writing. This I can freely show since I do not own it any longer.

Now, I am again doing the same on certain stocks in order to fund my Doodads!


Happy Investing!



P.S. May.10 (update on the Basketball league)

I was not able to join my team in the league. Huli na nang dumating dito sa Pinas! My team did not even make it to the semis. 

Instead of buying a new pair of shoes, the profit I took from the stock will be set aside for depositing on a CCA fund account. A fund that gives out 18% dividend per annum- and this is so me :)


5.05.2014

May 05- SHNG chart and analysis


Stock: SHNG
Date:05 May


Open-3.25
Low-3.18
High- 3.37
Close-3.37
Change: 4.33%

Technicals:
-noticeably price breaks pass the 200SMA trend
-psyc resistance 3.40,3.60,3.80
-rising MACD histogram
-STS 72.55

Actions:
start to water the plant

Trailing stops:
N/A

Other info:
Recent Company disclosure is SHNG buys out stake of ALPHA in Shangri-la Hotel for 1.7B

You may want to check the 2013 Financials:

4.28.2014

Apr.28- Marcventures Holdings Inc., (MARC) 2013

MARCVENTURES HOLDINGS INC. (MARC 2013)
1.821 B- Out.shares
7.9 B- MarCap
1.821 billion pesos -Capital stock
735 million pesos -Retained earnings
303.5 million pesos -Cash and cash equivalent
2.9 billion pesos -Total Asset
159 million pesos -Total Liabilities
2.77 billion pesos -Equity attributable to parent company
429 million pesos -Current Asset
130 million pesos -Current liabilities
Revenue: 
2.516 billion pesos -2013
697.5 million pesos -2012
% change: 261%
Net Income: 
1.0 billion pesos -2013
114.5 million pesos -2012
% change: 773%
closing price 28-04-2013: 4.36 pesos
ANNUALIZED EPS: 0.55
PE: 7.93x
BV per share: 1.59 pesos
Price to book value: 2.74x
Other notes:
Return on Equity: 36.0%
Return on Assets: 35 %
Net income margin: 40%
Current ratio: 3.3
Debt-to-equity: 0.06
Expensive Multiple as per Benjamin Graham is 22.5 (PE x P/BV)
BV=1.59
P=4.36
P/BV= 2.74
PE= 7.93
BGM= 21.72
Happy Investing!

4.23.2014

Apr.23- an inquiry on Century Pacific Food IPO

an inquiry on the upcoming IPO of Century Pacific Food Inc. (CNPF).

msg: Ok ba ang century pacific food?

My reply:

maayong adlaw diha...just had a quick look sa prospectus nila 650pages, pero dili tanan ako gibasa..mi check ko sa PE ratio bai...usa sa mga tan-awon nako na indicator kung pila ka multiple ang market price to its earnings per share. nakita nako mga 27x. And its current liabilities is almost reaching its asset. although food sector ni siya, reasonable ang pricing nila to 13.75..pero sa IPO man gud mangibabaw ang sentiment sa mga investors kung ok ang timing sa IPO. given na ang recent ipo from Double dragon was successful, malamang same result to Century...maingon nga dili na basehan ang cheap ba or mahal, ang sentiment sa investors mangibabaw on the day of the IPO. kung sa ako approach, the price is quite expensive for me and the upside is quite little for me kay peak na ang 27X for my criteria...makipag agawan kapa sa allocation per broker ana sa available share for sale. possible kapipiranggot lang pod makuha, in the case sa mga online broker, bacin bunutan pa ang mahitabo...you can buy days after the ipo considering the technical side or you deem the price cheap kung e sell down man gani sa mga players..or risk buying on the day of ipo but expect that one to be bought from the selling shareholder at a higher price...in my opinion. pass sah ko sa Century and let the silence on the trade be my indicator to get my eyes on the stocks...I attack when nobody is looking, wahehehe..pagkakaron, ang mga mata naa sa iyaha...and I don't want to compete with them.

4.21.2014

Apr.21- Fb message: inquiry on getting rich...the easy way



an inquiry on getting rich...

I received a Facebook message asking on, "how to get rich...the easy way" ;)

My reply:

getting rich is a process…foundation of wealth is a key. ideally on a pyramid form, not a skyscraper, and making one does not sound easy but always achievable...it takes passion and setting realistic target..the moment you achieve few goals, you just have to upgrade them…being rich does not necessarily mean achieving an exact amount. it is the exact mental attitude you want to attain at a definite time frame.
As it sounds, richness is in the mind. once you achieve something according to your plan in "getting there" then you feel the richness in feeling, right? It's up to you how you associate that with money. After all, richness is not only in cash, no one can stop you to think that way or whatever you want to think. Richness can be achieved in friends, family love, environment, spiritual relations, etc...and beside those mentioned you may insert the money as you like. Remember, it is not a quick process but rather an enjoyable ride to getting there. and you certainly don't want any enjoyable experience to be quick. ;)


You will always have the ups and downs along the way but these are only but natural parts of the process.

"what is the sweetness in winning if you might not lose."

Good luck 

4.20.2014

Apr.20- Arthaland Corp. (ALCO) 2013

Arthaland Corp. (ALCO 2013)

5.318 B -Out.shares
1.08 B -MarCap
 


850.8 million pesos -Capital stock
656.2 million pesos -Retained earnings
574.6 million pesos -Cash and cash equivalent

4.35 billion pesos -Total Asset
2.79 billion pesos -Total Liabilities
1.56 billion pesos -Equity attributable to parent company

Revenue:
2.33 billion pesos -2013
1.45 billion pesos -2012
% change: 60.7%

Net Income:
281.6 million pesos -2013
269.1 million pesos -2012
% change: 4.6%

closing price 15-04-2013: .203 pesos
ANNUALIZED EPS: 0.053
PE: 3.83              

BV per share: 0.29 pesos
Price to book value: 0.69x

Note: market price is below book value
market price is at 44% discount

Other notes:

Return on Equity: 18%
Return on Assets: 6.5 %
Net income margin: 12.1%

Debt-to-equity: 1.79

Expensive Multiple as per Benjamin Graham is 22.5 (PE x P/BV)

BV=0.293
P=.203
P/BV= .69
PE= 3.83
BGM= 2.64

Legends:
BV-book value; P-current price; PE- price to earnings; BGM- Benjamin Graham Multiple


Happy Investing!

4.18.2014

Apr.18- Republic Glass Holdings (REG) 2013

Republic Glass Holding Corp. (REG 2013)

682 M -Out.shares
1.63 B -MarCap
 


738.3 million pesos -Capital stock
521.4 million pesos -Retained earnings
276.2 million pesos -Cash and cash equivalent

1.75 billion pesos -Total Asset
161.7 million pesos -Total Liabilities
1.584 million pesos -Equity attributable to parent company

1.028 billion pesos -Current Asset
645 million pesos -Current liabilities

Revenue:
44.2 million pesos -2013
47.4 million pesos -2012
% change: -6.75%

Net Income:
676 million pesos -2013
172.5 million pesos -2012
% change: 292%

closing price 15-04-2013: 2.39 pesos
*ANNUALIZED EPS: 0.99
*PE: 2.41               

BV per share: 2.32 pesos
Price to book value: 1.03x

Note: market price is equal to the book value
*(distorted due to gain on sale of Properties)

Other notes:

Return on Equity: 42.7%
Return on Assets: 38.6 %
*Net income margin: 1429%

Current ratio: 1.59
Debt-to-equity: 0.10

Expensive Multiple as per Benjamin Graham is 22.5 (PE x P/BV)

BV=2.32
P=2.39
P/BV= 1.03
PE= 2.41
BGM= 2.48


Happy Investing!