Feb. 28- Five (5) steps of a Bubble- Investopedia

What stage are we at now? 

It does not matter what the experts say... what matter is what stage I see and therefore  I must act on it.

I see and believe that it is in a BOOM stage.

1. Displacement
2. Boom
3. Euphoria
4. Profit Taking
5. Panic

Click to read an article on:

5 Steps of a Bubble

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PSE ranks 3rd top performing market worldwide in 2012

http://www.interaksyon.com/business/55899/pse-ranks-3rd-top-performing-market-worldwide-in-2012

“For two consecutive years, our stock market has been recognized among the fastest growing markets. 


BEST YET TO COME? Bourse chief talks up market, cites 70 pct increase in foreign buying

http://www.interaksyon.com/business/55992/best-yet-to-come-bourse-chief-talks-up-market-cites-70-pct- increase-in-foreign-buying

"A lot of funds globally have not yet come into the Philippines because of the fact that we are not an investment grade country. Once we get the investment grade status, a lot more investments will flow into the country and that will provide a boost for many corporates, both listed and unlisted," said Sicat.

Feb.25- monitoring a stock is like growing a tree.

Stocks are also like trees. Nurturing a stock is the same application to growing a tree.  It is essential to watch them on its early stage of sprouting. To help nurture its growth you need a lot of care and monitoring, protecting them from adversities to growing. Now that it's showing its independence, the bark is rough, and ready to survive by itself I can already leave it to grow to its potential. I can sit tight and may not monitor its growth anymore..such is the analogy of ARA.

Showing new support on 1.70. The resistance became support. I can take out ARA from my monitoring henceforth...

Still caring for SHNG though. I pruned a little bit at 3.7+ and may use these leaves as fertilizer for it to grow robust and become like ARA (trend and liquidity) in the near future. I am working for SHNG to become a robust tree which someday I can take my eyes off and feel right while sitting and watching a hard tree growing.

kung dili motubo si shng, maaayo pa uli ko sa amo magpadayun magtanom ug mahogany =)

Feb. 22- stocks update

Trend and sitting tight play:

ARA- up by 12% today. Second attempt to break 1.7 since 06feb but failed. I think such run like today could be decent and sustainable than taking it again to ceiling. Trend is up so nothing to worry.. Hold
My sitting tight is proving me right..

Fundamental:

SHNG- expecting any moment announcement of cash divs. I see that I am with stronghands now. No volume today (no trade). In addition, closing price at 52nd wk high 

SPC-  :-)

Technical:

bkd- wrong estimation. price at psyc support of 0.90.. break 30sma then I shall sell. Position is miniscule, only for practice to a certain approach to buying high fliers.. now a losing position. touching this is proving me wrong.. yet giving one last chance to prove myself right..

APC- break 0.80 then i will let go

Others: 

MARC- I got 30/60sma broken. The trend is down and may retest 1.70 again. A bad news on 4Q earnings may probably push this trend to a new bottom.


Disclosures:

PERC- PXP sold all shares to RCBC sec. PXP is top 2 stockholer of PERC. Consequently certain Dir Carlos Pablo resigned. 
Q: Who is the client behind RCBC?
Action to take: to wait for 4Q report, or ask around.

I-remit (I)- MOA with CPG
Action to take: monitoring I-remit technically.

Happy weekend everyone!

short cuts to investment? not for me...

A friend of mine popped a message to inform that a certain group went to invest on a certain company that pays out 3% interest daily. 

And so?

She was concerned that most of those interested were her friends. Anxious, she intervened to them that before investing into such attractive returns one must do their due diligence.

Good job! but never tell something they should not do...it's their money, not yours.

Nevertheless, i went to check out what's with all the fuss... she gave me the link...


The basic one may know to gain in stock investing are the one below. All others I consider a magic.

In stocks you gain in 2 ways:

-Dividends
-stock appreciation

This certain online investment company she is showing to me is giving out a pay of 3% daily 5 days a week..and if her explaination to me was right, the investment matures after 72 days. (well whatever the scheme my point is this) I did ask for a financial statement to evaluate, if there is, but all I received was an opinion.

Opinion is good but I need numbers. To understand how it works is a key to control of information than someone else's hype to protect an established belief.

In investing we give money in return for a dividend through the earnings of the business. While it is in stocks we also get a gain from price appreciation the moment you sell it higher than your purchased price.

My advise to my friend was only to remind them what they have to do BUT do not be a hero telling them what not to do. 
She did her part good. She remind them that for a higher reward, there is risk. We can't argue about that. 

In my own way of investing, I only put my money where I know how the numbers move thereby checking financial statements and analysing the numbers should there be any positive track in the pipeline to speculate 

No financial statement/ or any information how the business works means NO money in the pot.

Scams are made of magic explaination and attractive presentation, and a very attractive return as well. Enron became a profitable investment company until it collapsed to realize there was really no earnings, only systematic modus of trading...

Anyway, earnings is my key to investment. 
I have asked them, how can an investment company sustain a pay out of 3% when there is even no public information as to how they are earning. A good online presentation will not do for me, maybe for others who seek for short cut.

Finally, my friend is now at peace. She said she has no hurt feeling not to intervene with the group if that investment really turns out wrong.

I said again, don't think it is a wrong investment because it looks really right when it is earning. The problem is the approach to investing and that one did not fit for you and more so for me. 

My friend, let them enjoy if they are earning even in the most absurd way- at least they are getting money out of that scheme. It is their money to spare. What we can do is to focus our energy to a more important thing than be disturbed to the doings of others. We continue to investing in the right way and that is invest where right money is earned, and where earnings are gained without short cuts.

Good luck to us and to all PSE investors...and of course, also to that "3% group"

PSEI to 10,000! 

Feb. 12- Monitoring updates

MARC- price is on the 2 pesos level for quite sometime now..30SMA is approaching to support. My guess is any moment it may define its prevailing trend. The longer it consolidate the better chances to spring up pass the 200SMA which is still far way above 2.30. Resting for now on 2 pesos is good. Technically it is a buy. Fundamentally I am worried of its earning report that may put off the imminent move.

ARA- Holding. I am just sitting tight bcoz I think I am right,lol

SHNG- waiting for catalyst. 

you may want to see 3Q  of   SHNG
for bisaya reader =) pls click  SHNG

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To convince my observation that I am right, I have to prove it with my money. Money in the pot on:

BKD

caveat

Termino pang pinansiyal- kasabot ba ko?

SHNG Q3 2012

Gi gamit lang ang SHNG para iksampol para tan-awon kung kasabot ba ko sa mga termino aning pinansiyal.

Puhunan:          4.764 billion pesos

Utang:             12.632 billion pesos (palit ug mga gamit)

ikwarta ang tanan pwede e kwarta: 35.104 billion pesos (ning mahal ang mga gamit)

Kwarta dali mahugot: 1.577 billion pesos

Gamit dali makwarta: 6.630 billion pesos

Tubo sa negosyo: 14.037 billion pesos 

salin kung ma pordoy: 22.472 billion pesos

magtunga sa salin kng naay 4.7billion shares

Gitawag nga "presyo sa libro" =4.72 kada shares

Konklusiyon:

Mau kini ang basehan nato nga 14Billion ang ginansya sa 4.7B na puhunan…

Naa pa lay utang, pero pwede na mabayaran sa pondo.

Pwede man pod dili sah kay labon ngdagan man pod ang ginansiya kada tuig..Kaning 35B na mga gamit, kadghanan mga building ni (real estate) dili ma katingalahan na mutubo pajud ni sa gadagang panahon..

Tan-awon nato kung ok pa ba mgpadayun tah sa negosyo kung mghatag paba ug ginansiya pra madugangan ang pondo ug makabayad pod sa utang.

Halin sa 9 bulan 2012: 3.699 billion pesos
Halin sa 9 bulan 2011: 2.113 billion pesos
% pagbag-O : 75 %

Ginansiya  9 bulan 2012: 1.029 billion pesos
Ginansiya  9 bulan 2011: 827.137 million pesos
% pagbag-O: 24.4%

Nganung dili mgpadayun? Maayo man ang negosyo. 1.37B kada tuig ginansiya.

Laliman ka, 4B puhunan, sa ginansiya lang hapit 35% na mibalik sa usa ka tuig lang.. sa puhunan, bawi na 2 ka tuig pa. Ang mga gamit pod mag mahal pod ang presyo.

Ari ta sa merkado:

tinoud nga presyo sa libro: 4.72

presyo sa merkado: 3.11

*gihangyo sa merkado ug 50%
 

magpakabana

Feb.7- No trades. BBQ Party

No trades for today. Did not sell nor buy.

'was busy preparing for BBQ party for my crew.. 
drank Sliwowica vodka early in the morning..

Sliwowica Plum Vodka

lamb, chicken and beef bbq on the plate, pinoy style! 
got to taste everything prepared...matched with wine and efes beer. The result, videoke! 

BISAN ANG KALIBUTAN MAGDUMILI

hinigugma, kini patalinghugi
ang saluma nga akong ipabati
panganti maoy naghari
sa mga titik ning akong awit

timan-i lang pinangga
gihigugma ko ikaw
saksi ang langit
sa tim-os kung pagbati
luyo sa kapaitan
sa akong mga gugma
pangitaon ko ang dalan
alang kanatong duha

touhi nga ikaw nga akong unongan
bisan ang kalibutan magdumili
way sapayan na ako sakiton lamang malipay ka

Music on Youtube

Kampai!

Feb.6 ARA

If ARA's trend is like that of EEI then I would have not taken out my capital
ARA has a unique trend that I have to respect, hence capital + small profit out. Allowing remaining profits to run where Batman would like to go today or the next...  
Sold at 1.69...naka tsamba intawn, kaluy-an.. 

the same drill to execute...

If I am wrong..
If I am right...

seeing the price action...the price retraced within the day to its 50% (1.4) even went to as low as 1.38 after reaching its intra day high 1.70

thing is i was not able to position at 1.4 for my "If I am wrong" option. I could have bot on that price if not for COL technical problem.. thanks anyway, I have to celebrate the gains than to regret on something else...

Now I wonder on the last minute the price had a momentum push.. 
So whether technically rally will still continue tomorrow is highly probable.

What is certain ARA said goodbye to 1 peso and made history today.. 
I have 200 SMA to convince me that the general trend is up.

----------------------------------
on the other hand,

Awaiting for PRIM's disclosure...

Feb. 4- update stock monitoring

A good start of the week to everyone!

First thing I check was the psei already at 6447 at noon. so 50 more points to 6500 to realize the target of Pnoy... All sectors were green.. let's see my picks.

PRIM- ASM  today. No disclosure released. 

ARA- money busy on other flavor-of-the-months stocks. Technical is ripe.

SHNG- Tower out...

Cheesy on PCKH with the current price nearing my buy price..but i doubt someone will sell it down...In any case, getting ready with my fund..


My previous take on pckh:

P.D. Sold all shares long since..at 8.0-8.20.. I prefer to see 4Q numbers instead before getting into a conviction buy

PCKH


caveat

to be a rich trader, think differently

I have selected few of the 21 ways that has something to advise traders how to achieve best result in winning stock Market, differently…

11. Average people believe the markets are driven by logic and strategy. Rich people know they're driven by emotion and greed.

17. Average people focus on saving. Rich people focus on earning.

18. Average people play it safe with money. Rich people know when to take risks.

19. Average people love to be comfortable. Rich people find comfort in uncertainty.

You can read the full article: 21 ways rich people think differently

21 ways rich people think differently

By Mandi Woodruff 


A blessed Sunday everyone

Diamond

When the going gets bad, it's going to be too bad for me...
When the going gets right, it seems to be the way it should be...

You don't get the picture...maybe I don't get the picture either. If I have tried to, I really tried it very hard.. I am just good at making everything look easy. Stand, type, wait, reply, entertain someone, reply, call, reply, log, reply, reply, reply, reply... No problem, not busy...Mr. Work is the one disturbing...

It went wrong and we know it. But it's not me! It's the wrong doing, wrong interpretation, wrong focus. 
We should get rid of that and move on, or remind me to get rid of it..But don't try to get rid of me.

Maybe you don't..and maybe I am wrong to think of that way.
Everytime there is pain you can just avoid me, not talk me, or avoid me and go find to talk to or hug someone for comfort and find back your sanity. 

That leaves me alone here. Hanged! It feels like peeling my skin, shivering..just get over it, pls... I can't shine like a diamond forever...

...but crash me hard, and I will give more brilliance 

I cannot find comfort. Finding air when I need it is just too tight for me to breathe. I look around to find comfort and bring back composure but I see only equipment around. 
Can I talk to you for a minute, charts? 
Can I talk to you, radio? Please, I am alone..

If only I can  pay you to talk to me and give me company... Sorry, I just need someone, not someone, or something to talk to (?)... It is so unfair.  These things are not responding..

I think no one knows what it is like to be me. 
For sure they see what I am like to what I am projecting, of course.. and I am projecting it way too absurd.

They say time can heal. This is the other way around in this case. Time passing is a torture.
I would like to stop the time before moving on..coz I want to make it right when I start to run the time back. problem is someone else's has the button. I feel I am running out of time...

Can you hear me?  hello? hello? maybe it's the signal...hello? 
Line went dead 

just dial again.. to win you back, my c, my diamond  =)