Now I wonder

My wonder stock has not moved the way I had hoped for. The price actions prompted me to sell all my shares and had a plan to buy it back once the trend is determined, but not like the way I saw today's trade.

Sold ICT at near intraday low, nonetheless, I gained few thousands since I bought it at 53.
I will have to buy it back once it will convincingly break 60ish. Here's again my hind mind contemplating; I should have sold it at 60. But then again, no one can predict the absolute high- with a buyer. I am no rich stock operator.

Bought CEB Cebu Pacific Airlines. This stock did nothing since its IPO but down trending. At 65ish this is 50% discounted from its IPO price at 132/share last Oct. 2010.

Price being cheap against the IPO price was my primary factor before considering other aspects why I bought CEB.
In any case, safety margin is already impose should CEB continue to go down. Fundamental wise, CEB is promising.

As the Phil tourism new tag line, "It's more fun in the Philippines" the program targets millions more of tourists to come to Philippines.  Without saying, they come by plane =)

But this is only me speaking. This can be a potential lousy stock following SMC =)

BReaking news: 

SMC as per disclosure, news confirmation of source saying due diligence of PAL acquisition of 49% stake ($500M) deal is finished. Despite this catalyst market didn't react or no significant price action took place. I guess investors await for final announcement from SMC when they finally close the deal.

Sold all ANS. Bought it for dividends but I didn't wait for the record date. Hence, the gains from trading is already my dividends. Got concerned later on if there would be no buyer. 

BHI was surprising today. Even interesting seeing once again a disclosure with pictures attached in an attempt to please investors. I can't help but criticize it as a desperate disclosure- yet again. I can't do anything for now with BHI---reason? A stock for trade became a long term. This is what we call, ipit big time.
Enjoy the pictures! click the link
Behold! pictures can answer thousands of questions =)


http://www2.pse.com.ph/html/disclosure/pdf/2012/pdf/dc2012-1635_BHI.pdf

Ciao ciao

Assessing PERC

PSEi
4,893.48 4,893.00
-0.48

PERC Petroenergry Resources Corporation is my first ever stock bought since I started trading. Up to this day I still hold  this stock in my portfolio.

This is to remind me that basic knowledge on investing can be the best thing there is when application of complex approach may sometimes lead me to a deadend and I may end up picking other stocks due to "analysisparalysis".

Not being sentimental on this but I respect my early application of stock pickings through fundamental outlook.
All possible aspects as to my knowledge in investing were weighed and everything boils to one particular stock, and that is PERC.

Knowledge of the industry- check ( I work in oil industry)
P/E- 8.53
Book value- 6.5 (current price is fair- 6.4) Price is at par on BV
i.e.  (Total equity $42M/outs.shares)

Do the same and determine BV and dividend yield of (other oil companies)  OV & OPM :

OV- 3X BV (3x expensive), 2% dividend yield
OPM-2X BV (2x expensive), no dividends
Price lower or equal to the BV is better. There is room to move the price up to BV level. Any other catalysts can shoot it more.

PERC Catalysts: Oil price is up, success in geothermal projects, good 4Q earnings, USD getting strong against peso, upcoming decision on galoc 2 expansion, PXP as stockholder...

PERC has not released their 4Q report as per PSE website. Interesting whether they have increase profit for yet another yummy dividends to expect.

Product future- Oil is increasing its value especially due to tension in Iran gulf.
Dividend yield- 3.3% way more better against OV & OPM
PERC is the company where PXP is getting their profits.
see page 4 of this link:

http://www2.pse.com.ph/html/ListedCompanies/pdf/2011/PXP_17Q_Sep2011_1.pdf 
 
Expansion to other business venture- Geothermal projects.
Expansion means growth and diversity in invesment.

This was my first application of my knowledge in choosing a stock. Unlike nowadays, as much as info I get, news I absorbed, and charts I
interpret, nothing really compares to the basic knowledge of stock pickings than what I had learned in my early ways.

Marry the stock

PSEi

4893 (-40.8) 0.83%

 

I was out of trading for 2 days. I had the chance to glimpse my portfolio in Dubai and all was still well. The next thingI knew upon checking it the second day, my picks were battered. Seeing ICT and PGOLD dropped again somewhere near to same level it had consolidated was disappointing. Now seeing from other stocks, they are speeding up ahead. Should I shift?

I was on a long queue for my domestic flight. On the other queue was a bit long but I observed that the progress was faster. There came the trader mentality in me assessing the situation to consider going instead for the faster long line. I lingered for a while to think which among the lines would give me the fastest time to reach the counter. The progress or (price action) of the other line showed convincing result for a faster target I was looking for- and so I shifted.

I arrived on the counter same time if I had remained on the other line. I took action yet if I will relate the picture to trading, I lose.
 

The first line made slow progress yet it should have given me peace of mind and somehow the target I was expecting- to reach the counter. The only
losing side on me is, if it were trading, i lose from fees through selling and buying in same manner I lose energy shifting
to the other line- Only my broker has gained from it.

For this matter, I shall remain with my picks. ICT, PGOLD, and my longest position on PERC.

I will share soon why I remained loyal to PERC. For the moment, let me savor my vaction with my family.

Ma ma ma marry, ma ma ma marry the stock.

ciao

MARCh fever

PSEi
4,943.84 4,900.94
-42.90

As I had anticipated, correction of index is imminent should there be
an attempt to reach 5000 mark. Nonetheless, all went well.

bought again AAA- just to satisfy my fear of being left out should it fly to mars. I feel that having AAA is like having a high grade portfolio =)

Advisory:
ICT- taking off since breaking 58 level..barely touched 60ish, now at 59.5/share despite red market
PRIM- testing my patience but showed some volumes today.


My MARC is awesome. up by 6.8% and its gaining respect from fundamental investors.

As I have previously stated, this company is making a turnaround in profits
and they are in business! From their recent disclosure:

To see full disclosure please see below link:

http://www2.pse.com.ph/html/ListedCompanies/pdf/2012/MARC_17Q_Dec2011.pdf

The numbers speak for the company's performance after a year of operation.

MARC is now officially on my long term stocks, unless condition dictates otherwise.

Ciao ciao

a trader on server problem

4,880.71 4,943.84
+63.13
(short of 60+ points to reach history)

Dream as if you will gain forever, live as if you will lose it tomorrow. -bravorat
 
A worse thing that can happen to an online trader is to lose his internet connection. That just happened to me this morning. Our in-charge has yet to call our server in Milan to resolve the problem. The signal came back four hours after the close. Losing internet connection is so terrible. It is like watching a boxer without his coach.

Obviously, I was not able to trade.

Updates:
LC-  holding 60% core (up 5.9%). I don't know if I will add funds
ANS-up 4.4% ..discounting the upcoming dividend (0.25/share)
SMC-received dividend today!
CPG-unchanged. testing water after the block sale of 1.75php to meet PSE float level requirement. Give me more stability and confirmation of trend and I shall go long with you =)

"Wonder" stock & "Optimus" stock are in slumberland.

To disclose:

Wonder stock- ICT
Optimus stock- PRIMe 


Let's bring it on!

PSEi reaching 5000 mark

It's a gloomy Sunday and it's boring. 

Last Friday, PSEi reached its new high at 4880.71 (+114 points). Reaching 5000 mark is a history and I want to see it. Anything below is deemed normal. So everyone can guess that it may correct this Monday nearing lunch time or earlier. 

I hope I am wrong, coz all I wish is everything to go up- which, of course, is impossible =)

On a another note:

One of my friend had asked me if he has to buy a stock what will it be? 

I always ask the same question: Are you an investor or a trader?

If he can't choose between the two, I am always firm in advising someone to invest rather than to trade. This will also depend on one's knowledge, time, financial literacy, available funds, lifestyle, to mention a few..

and to ask the the ultimate question, what is your target on your money invested?
This is to know one's definition of "Enough"
Once achieved, stop. And don't think twice to celebrate the fruits. Spare some fruits as your fund to another investing. And in this manner, any gains from the fruit of your investment is what we can call now, infinite returns!
See, who doesn't want to have infinity in terms of gains!!!

If anyone wants to pass way beyond their definition of enough can face his worst enemy who all the time is ready to slap you awake of your dream. He can shatter all your profit in one blow. Please don't attempt to welcome Mr.Greed.

Once a profit, take action not lose it!

COme wednesday, I will be out for 2 days for a cross country trip.
I will have to prepare my portfolio in a way I can sleep well in the plane =)

Optimus PRIMe

When I was in my high school years, I always think ahead of what to do during weekdend- this especially when a teacher starts to sing lullabye topic. I am always excited of what kind of weekend I will have with my friends..Playing basketball and guitar was my life then.

Now, my weekend is not like that anymore. I always think about what to do on Monday and the rest of the week. My mind is most of the time preoccupied on my trading plans for the week (not to include the investment stock). 

You might wonder that being a trader, Monday-Friday are the most exciting and challenging days there are. There is nothing could compare the energy that the market has offered to me; except for love-making anytime we want. =) OK..Can I start to say something about this week?
enough with the crap..

Other than my wonder stock, there is my 'Optimus' stock that I will be monitoring. It is still quiet and the bravorat has started to enjoy the taste of the cheese. 
I have assessed "Optimus" differently from the others. Fundamental will not apply nor technical, but more of speculation. 

Going thru the SEC Form 17-A (2010) for their business profile, it says:

"...still in the process of cleaning up its balance sheet to pave the way for the entry of a new investor who will be willing to inject its business or assets into the Company"

Now its a matter time and execution of the new investor to inject assets into the company that can make a turnaround for this company. Last Friday, I had GTC order and got hit with 3% discount from previous price.

MArCAp- > 1B
Outstanding shares->400M
Equity- NEGATIVE (-849M) (am I nuts!) to invest on a negative equity

as I said, no application of TA & FA. Pure speculation of new investor taking over (cross fingers).

However, knowing the safety margin still has to be a vital part of considering throwing your money in. Checking the stockholders, I saw employee retirement plan, shoemart co. even a group of Accepted Mason of Phil is in the house =)


Check link:
PRIM stockholders

There are enough entities to prevent the fall of a company and protect the interest of the minorities,like me- in Filipino: May karamay ka!

BUT what caught my eyes is the no.1 ranked investor, Metro Pacific Corporation (80.6% stake). I know only of this company to be chaired by our very own Manny Pangilinan of TEL (PLDT). To analyse further, Manny Pangilinan has TV5 (friend ni willy, hehe) and actually rumored to have an ongoing  negotiation with GMA for a buy out for 45B. Information of a possible buy out is enough for me to consider that any failure on the current negotiation with GMA can lead to plan B. 

Guess what can be a possible plan B?
Instead of MVP of TV5 buying out GMA7, my "Optimus" stock is at the corner waiting for its chance to shine.

I have to think like MVP. If I want more power, I go to buy the media...the BIG one. To take a little farther, I go to monopolize the media industry by buying other media companies. Just like what he did recently, he bought DGTL (Sun cellular Company)

This is only a speculation. The angle of a secondary strategy is possible and I cannot resist to consider any chance of probability. And for this reason, I just had my conviction buy for this media company. 

May I have a happy weekend =)

Evergreen...

PSE
4,766.57     4,880.71 

+114.14

All sectors are green

 
“The new mining policy will be a positive development for
the country in terms of attracting investors,” Jasareno said.

-Bloomberg

Despite the positive statement, I lightened up on my darling LC to finance
my purchase on the plummeting CPG-Century Property Group (-11%), now on trading halt. The particular aspect I am so attracted to CPG is their current MarketCap against other reputable property companies. It will catch up soon to at least twice its current MarCap, given their ongoing and upcoming high profile projects.

my broker must be so happy...I traded few times today =)

Sold all remaining shares (odd lots) of AAA, up 9.3%. It's getting hot!
Sold 40% core of LC- shifted funds to a sleeper stock. I call this stock "baby Optimus"

bought one stock for a 7% cash dividends. just a small position.

Breaking news:

Wonder stock has now established its price at 58. should it hold next week, I will fasten my seatbelt...ciao ciao

wonder stock...has not moved yet

When in doubt of Gold then I go for Nickel. 

I have read an article that Nickel will outperform gold this year. 

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/nickel-will-outperform-gold-in-next-12-months-deutsche-bank-45340-3-45341.html

Not having read this made me convinced to buy MARC, but their recent financial report is so attractive. This company is in full operation.
Bought MARC at 5% discount from previous price.
Fund shifted from WIN & AAA (IMO speculative stocks) both 9.27% up

My wonder stock still at range 57...waiting for break out above 58.

What is on my mind?

Awaiting for the new EO mining law to be signed soon. Whatever that is, I'll just watch the price action.

Bouna =)

third round?

Sold MA for a decent gain.

I was expecting for a momentum but the price action showed otherwise, and so I tsupit..

tsupit- trading term in Filipino when selling a stock for a gain from few fluctuations of the price.

I want to hold MA for long but still waiting for another momentum.

-Breaking news about SMC
San Miguel Corp. of the Philippines Added to Dow Jones Emerging Markets
Consumer Goods Titans 30 Index

...but no significant reaction from market-just yet.


Still watching closely for an anticipated price surge of one stock.
Gaining grounds for a repeat history.

Happy Valentines day, MA

PSE 4,802.03 - 4,775.93

-26.10 

Don't frown because you never know who might be falling
in love with your smile.- Anonymous

But this day my face was showing a mix of frown and smile while watching the volatility. One minute I smile, the next I frown- This only applies to my short term traded stock I am monitoring. For my long term stocks, volatility shouldn't matter.

Frown when I just saw the breakout confirmation of MA reaching its 52nd wk high at 0.085cents. I put my money for trading purpose for the moment until price action can confirm significant development on their operation before I may consider to go for a long term...just like my conviction for LC.

I held MA for the reason that it's the 9th ranked stock of BPI UITF, still cheap at .069cents, and of course it's on the mining sector- which Philippines has abundant resources to exploit.

I sold MA a week ago, after holding it for a month. I have to shift funds to a more generous Phoenix Petroleum Philippines (PNX) @ 12.78php. The latter is giving out 50% stock dividends and 0.10cents per share soon (TBA). IF you held 50,000 shares on the record date, that entitles you to receive 25,000.
That simple...Now, if I want more than that, I hope the price goes up. I can later take out my capital, leave the shares from stock dividend for good, and that makes any return an infinite- capital free investment!

And there came my brief smile when I reentered MA today when it corrected down to 0.079 from as high as 0.085 on the early hours of trades. Brief when it stopped on that price level. See you tomorrow. Nonetheless, it gave me a 7.6% discount from intra day high.

On the other hand, watching the price of MA shooting up is not for me to regret. I sold MA before. This time,the run up gave me more confidence than before that the operation/program is proceeding as planned, and for this reason I bought MA the second time. 

My love to MA may be sweeter than the second time around.

A small fish watches the big fish

The recent released of BPI Odyssey HCF stock holdings widened my eyes- with a smile crossing my face. 

This UITF of BPI put investors' money into the fate of Lepanto Mining Corporation. BPI Odyssey HCF increased their LC holdings from 9.06% in December 2011 to 10.18% in January 2012. The increase of stake on Lepanto Mining Corporation simply means that BPI UITF fund managers sought a
stronger conviction this time that future is even brighter for this company, thus the increase of their stake.
By rank, LC is second to PX Philex mining Corporation with a stake of 10.31% of the total  BPI UITF domestic equities last December, and has increased now to 12.75% last January 2012.

UITF are instruments of Bank for investments. Pool of money from investors are invested on these selected stocks by fund managers. Seeing that they have increased their stake to these companies would simply give
a clue that Fund Managers certainly got a hold of vital information that I may have not known- I am just a small fish in this very big Oceanic Grand Order---

In this typical case, with loads of LC in my portfolio, It is more assuring than before to increase also my position in LC. Now I just
have to wait for the confirmation of this change of strategy by their fund managers.

For the record, I don't hold any UITF from any banks. I just hold stocks which those banks have invested in; courtesy of their good fund managers and insiders.

I get the full gains when the stocks goes up, not to mention also when there is dividends, and more importantly I can "cutloss" when the price plummets more than my losing margin percentage. If i can plainly say it, I will discourage
to invest in UITF should any of my friends ask for advice. You just make the Fund Managers happy to play with your money. If they lose on their stock picks then its for the account of their clientele. They even get fees!
Why not control and decide on what you are going to do with your money, or better yet, how you can make your money grow.

Especially to those who have SSS which I assumed all "tax payers", your money is also invested in stocks. Ask yourself, what if the stocks goes down in value? We can possibly see again the same scenario what had happened during US recession in 2008 where oldies crying over their pension wiped out without any knowledge how that just happened?
SSS in stocks? YES! check the Philex Mining Corporation stockholders link:

http://www2.pse.com.ph/html/ListedCompanies/pdf/2012/PX_Top100_Dec2011.pdf

---ohhh too much. Ranked No.1 (this is only one of the many companies SSS is invested)

In this case, one may think to stop contributing to SSS when there is stock offering you exponential returns..wait, sit back and take a deep breath..Keep SSS contribution as it is. It is safe. 

As for my previous post, I'm only seeking my strong conviction why I have stopped contributing to SSS 3 years now. hahaha!

I just have to laugh at it, but I am more confident that I can grow my money more and may even bring it to the moon. Win or lose, I am responsible of my money =)

For this reason, rather apportioning my savings to SSS I go to invest where SSS is invested and as I said, getting the full benefit of the stock, for this matter, PX.  But I have much of LC, since PX owned 5% of LC...

I don't want to see myself crying and blaming the government should the stock plummet to worthlessness. I will only have to cry and blame myself and be able to get up on my feet  and can proudly say that I am responsible on my investments; not Government, Fund managers, or others, but myself.

wait...

What Have I just shared? ...should be the effect from shots of J&B.

To add more info about the stock going for another run-up soon, this is
its full week of range trading...watch out for a break out at 58. bouna notte

Common sense

"At the touch of love, everyone becomes a poet"- Anonymous

--such quote is fitting during this heart's season =)

 

Tomorrow is another day. A new week and surprising events ahead
to digest.

I always remind myself that in choosing a stock, I must to have the strong reason why I will buy it. Whether it goes up or down the next minute, only to think about it going up in the long run is self reassuring- reaching my target price.

IMO, there is no exact way/procedure for everyone to follow on how to choose the right stock. There is only a strong conviction...and it is attained by investigation/research in seeking for your strongest WHY.

 
It is a common advise to safely invest in a company with earnings and from that earnings, we get a fair dividends respective to our number of shares.
But to know why and how the price moves cannot be limited to the latter knowledge. 
There is what we call market sentiments (demand), but I call it madness~~~

So one may think, how one can beat madness?

One should have...(please refer to the title).
 
I feel that I will have an exciting and fruitful weekdays ahead.

History shall repeat

Sunday

Market closed

A stock which has gone up 4 times 3 years back is poise to pump up again due to the same volume it had when it started to climb at the price level where it is now. With a day vol.of 20M, it started ascending 2 months later. With the same vol.21M made, will history repeat itself? 

The second month will be this week or the next.

Have a blessed Sunday everyone.

Italian Parmigiano Reggiano

PSE- 4769.62-4783.53

+13.90

Action began with red and ended with green. Nice to end a week like this.

Still dark in this part of the world, while the sun is up in Phil. I have to get off my bed at 2.30am (9.30 phil time) and watch over a stock that has climbed up to its limit (50%) only to see it plunged back at the close. had this few months back for this much anticipated news. Still monitoring how the market will react in the coming days...I truly believe it will increase its value, and it will be higher than what it is now.Not selling for now.

I am holding one stock due to their "aggressive expansion". And expansion means growth and earnings has increased significantly. Making some test whether their expansion program will reach Visayas area, as targeted 2013 in operation.

I have sent email to the company offering our prime lot in the city..submitted the title and sketch of the lot. Email well received and they have forwarded our email to their real estate company. Should they buy, this clearly will show their intention is genuine in expanding to Visayas and right away I will add more shares in my position. Otherwise, we know delay will happen.

The bravorat creeps towards the cheese while no one is looking. He enjoys piece of cheese at the moment. When he is almost full, he invites friends to come over and ensure they will benefit from it too. When he feels they are many to be noticed and are getting their piece with noise, bravorat exits silently. Yet there are still lot of cheese to enjoy. It's too noisy now. That exposes him less harm while enjoying the full benefit of the cheese. It is now up to his friends' appetite to handle such euphoria. Then bravorat goes to hunt for another cheese out there, as tasty as Italian Parmigiano Reggiano  =)

May we have a great weekend