Oct.28- Stock monitor for the week

PCKH. Willing to buy any price below 7.40. No order though. Only watching price behavior.

REG held fairly on the ex date..since shares remaining for divs purpose, the cheaper price I will get, I can maximize the return on divs..Hoping for price to come back to 2.20 area and will post buy somewhere below.

Awaiting divs declaration on LFM--still hoping though..I bought it at PE 8x

My action for FJP & PRIM will depend on the 3Q report. However, PRIM remains a speculative stock.
Will be receiving few bucks for a dine at pancake house, courtesy of FJP div payment on Nov.2

For trading: 

EG just dropped 15% with relatively lesser volume compared to vol on run up. If 0.044 holds, will buy.. otherwise, ready to buy 0.039..
remaining shares remains for show-good-performance stock 

Happy Halloween! 

20 Oct-MARC

MARC

Outstanding shares: 1,735,676,781

1Q earnings: loss 24,797,585 (Jan-Mar)

For the period January-March 2012, MMDC had no mining or extraction activities due to seasonal heavy

rains in the area. Operations focused on preparatory activities for the beginning of its mining season that

coincides with the relatively drier months of April-November. Preparatory activities consisted primarily

of maintenance operations for the various mountain roads that form part of the haulage network, as

well as the Company’s causeway. Rehabilitation works were also performed on the Company’s fleet of

heavy equipment.

2Q earnings: 136,763,848 (April-Jun)

Drier months of April-November..tuloy operation till 4Q (weather cooperating)

Initial Annual EPS: 0.13

PE 15= 1.95

PE 20=2.6

PE 6.5 (NIKL)= 0.84

Consider that this should not be the real picture since there was no operation on 1Q

A better picture on price appraisal would be practical when we can get 3Q report.

However, we can do some estimation out of their latest disclosure:

http://pse.com.ph/resource/disclosures/2012/pdf/dc2012-7605_MARC.pdf

Revenue increased 56%

14.2M USD- 9M 2012

9.09m USD-9M 2011 (this was the 381M sales)

Consider that MARC has bought their own transportation equipment mainly to minimize cost..that means more earnings- hopefully

14.2M usd * 40php =568M- 315M (6months ending sales of 2012)

=253M sales for 3Q 2012. 

We don’t know the cost but we can estimate

Ratio:

3Q 2011 - 381sales against 203 cost=1.87

2Q 2012- 315 sales against 169 cost= 1.87

Projected earning 3Q 253M/ 1.87

=135M earnings for 3Q

New Annualised earning: 329M/shares

=0.19

PE 10= 1.9

PE 15=2.85

PE 20=3.8

at 2.10/eps 0.13 (2Q 2012) = PE 16
using PE 16 on projected 0.19 Annaul EPS

Target price= 3.07pesos

Projected retained earnings:

306,531,009 + 135M 3Q= 341.5M (1 yr ops)

A must dividend declaration in 4 years time at this pacing.  However they can declare when they like...

MARC is now hanging on my wall...you are being framed!

Source:

http://pse.com.ph/resource/corpt/2012/MARC_17Q_Mar2012.pdf

http://pse.com.ph/resource/corpt/2012/MARC_A17Q_Jun2012.pdf

Oct.14- stock monitor for the week

Sold 90% of my EG shares. Big chunk sold at .047- biggest gain so far. Looking forward for more gains on other picks..

10% remaining shares will serve as my radar. This will also be my show-good-performance stock by percentage.

Added more PCKH. Willing to buy any price below 7.40. For now let me observe the price..

Observing price of REG this coming week nearing dividends..setting aside funds in the event opportunity knocks.

Awaiting divs declaration on LFM--still hoping though

No interest on other stocks. I will do away short trading this time given my focus on the job.

Excited for my picks this coming week.

 

Oct. 10- LFM

Since I left home for work I never had time to monitor my trading..Given my picks are for long, hence I can leave them as they grow.

A night before my flight, one stock caught my attention. Aside from my pckh, I have decided to get a piece of LFM for future dividend play. 

warning: very illiquid. few shares around.

Lfm gave 0.5 cash and previously a 25% stock divs. I bot lfm when I was in Moscow airport- buying shares after a missed flight. No estimation as to when they will declare..but my eyes are already on you!

This kind of stock need not to monitor actively. I will put my eyes in time when they declare divs. Already gaining but I need divs =)

My plans on EG. 

Will wake up 6.30am..4 hrs before my duty starts..less sleep hoping for a maximum gain.

If allowed for another 50% increase, will sell 2/3 of my shares (capital preservation and a hefty profit) leaving the rest for my show good performance stock in my portfolio.. Adding REG and Pckh for the moment. 

looking forward for at least 10% up in the first minute..if it won't push up, then execute plan A..but for a lesser profit