June 24- REG with Graham exp level

REG 1Q 2013

682 065 632                   -Out.shares
1,739,267,361                -MarCap 

1.411 billion pesos          -Equity attributable to parent company

738.3 million pesos         -Capital stock
695.0 million pesos         -Retained earnings

1.017 billion pesos          -Current Assets
1.614 billion pesos          -Total Asset

500 million pesos            -Cash and cash equivalent
203.6 billion pesos          -Liabilities

Revenue: 1Qs

32.594 million pesos       -2013
9.590 million pesos         -2012
% change: 240 %

Revenue in 2012 (discounting any one time sales) in millions

Mar- 9.862

June-21.595

Sept- 18.301

Dec- 18.698

68.456/4= 17.114 (eps 0.10 or 0.075 for 3Q)

Avg. 10 cents earnings yearly Avg

-With one time sale on 1Q I will be confident for REG to end the year somewhere at PE8x (0.22+0.075) =0.295 hence a candidate for my next investment

Net Income 1Q: Operation

151.579million pesos     -2013
33.870million pesos       -2012

% change:  347%

Annualized income: 606M

closing price 24-06-2013: 2.60 pesos
ANNUALIZED EPS: 88 centavos
PE : 2.95X one time gain on sale of properties worth 166M accounted in the 1Q. This may give me assurance of another 0.30 of dividends come October.               

BV per share: 2.07 pesos
Price to book value: 1.256x

Other notes:

Return on Equity: 43 %
Return on Assets: 37.5 %
Net income margin: 182% 

Current ratio: 5.18 
Debt-to-equity: 0.14

Stock: REG

Market price: P2.60

Date: June 24, 2013

Expensive Multiple as per Benjamin Graham is 22.5 (PE x P/BV)

BV=2.07

P=2.60

P/BV= 1.256

1^st = 88 cents          PE of 2.95

2^nd =29.5 cents        (0.22 1Q + Avg 3Q at 0.075) / PE of 8.81

1^st 1.256 x 2.95= 3.71

2^nd 1.256 x 8.81= 11.06

1^st eps has 506% upside to expensive level

2^nd eps has 103% upside to expensive level

                 

I will go for the 2^nd target =)